Table 1.

Input assumptions for the Markov model

Probability values	Value	Source
Progression free to death (p1)	0.0153	Murray et al.[7]
Progression free to undetected recurrence (p2)	0.023	Murray et al.[7]
Undetected recurrence to death (p3)	0.106	Murray et al.[7]
Detection of recurrence by CEA (p4CEA)	0.604	Park et al.[8]
Detection of recurrence by CT (p4CT)	0.790	Park et al.[8]
Detected recurrence to death (p5)	0.059	Park et al.[8]