Table 4.
Inflammatory Biomarkers and Incident Heart Failure Risk
| Inflammatory marker | All (n=2610) | Present atherosclerotic disease at baseline (n=665) | Absent atherosclerotic disease at baseline (n=1945) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HR (95% CI) | P value | HR (95% CI) | P value | HR (95% CI) | P value | |
| Individual markers – Model 1* | ||||||
| Interleukin-6, per log2 | 1.32 (1.16–1.50) | <.001 | 1.23 (1.02–1.48) | .032 | 1.40 (1.18–1.66) | <.001 |
| Tumor necrosis factor-α, per log2 | 1.49 (1.19–1.87) | .001 | 1.73 (1.26–2.38) | .001 | 1.40 (1.06–1.84) | .018 |
| C-reactive protein, per log2 | 1.11 (1.00–1.23) | .051 | 1.02 (0.88–1.17) | .82 | 1.19 (1.05–1.36) | .009 |
|
| ||||||
| Individual markers – Model 2† | ||||||
| Interleukin-6, per log2 | 1.29 (1.13–1.47) | <.001 | 1.18 (0.98–1.42) | .090 | 1.38 (1.17–1.64) | <.001 |
| Tumor necrosis factor-α, per log2 | 1.46 (1.17–1.84) | .001 | 1.71 (1.25–2.35) | .001 | 1.36 (1.04–1.82) | .025 |
| C-reactive protein, per log2 | 1.09 (0.99–1.21) | .087 | 0.98 (0.85–1.14) | .84 | 1.19 (1.04–1.35) | .010 |
|
| ||||||
| Pooled markers – Model 1* | ||||||
| Interleukin-6, per log2 | 1.26 (1.09–1.46) | .002 | 1.23 (0.99–1.52) | .062 | 1.30 (1.07–1.58) | .009 |
| Tumor necrosis factor-α, per log2 | 1.39 (1.10–1.74) | .005 | 1.65 (1.20–2.27) | .002 | 1.25 (0.94–1.66) | .13 |
| C-reactive protein, per log2 | 1.02 (0.91–1.14) | .73 | 0.95 (0.81–1.11) | .52 | 1.08 (0.94–1.25) | .28 |
| Joint significance | <.001 | .002 | <.001 | |||
|
| ||||||
| Pooled markers – Model 2† | ||||||
| Interleukin-6, per log2 | 1.24 (1.07–1.44) | .004 | 1.19 (0.96–1.48) | .10 | 1.28 (1.06–1.56) | .013 |
| Tumor necrosis factor-α, per log2 | 1.41 (1.12–1.77) | .003 | 1.65 (1.20–2.27) | .002 | 1.23 (0.92–1.63) | .16 |
| C-reactive protein, per log2 | 1.01 (0.90–1.13) | .91 | 0.92 (0.78–1.08) | .31 | 1.08 (0.93–1.25) | .30 |
| Joint significance | <.001 | .004 | <.001 | |||
CI=Confidence interval; HR=Hazard ratio
HR expressed per log2 (logarithm with basis 2) - equivalent to the HR per doubling of the original value of the parameter.
Atherosclerotic disease at baseline was defined as presence of definite or probable coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, or peripheral arterial disease at baseline.
*
Model 1: Adjusted for baseline characteristics and medication use as described in Table 1.
†
Model 2: Model 1 variables plus ankle-arm index and time-varying incident coronary events.