Table 3.
Assessment of transmission parameters for the outbreak of LSD in Ein-Zurim in 2006¥
|
alpha (Indirect contact) |
beta (direct contact) |
gamma (transmission between lactating groups) |
delta (bordering groups) |
eta (density) | teta (age) | nu (lactation status) | Constant (c) | mu | sigma | L* | p-value€ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| alpha+beta+ gamma+delta | 0.026 | 0.006 | 0.011 | 0.001 | 0.2 | 7 | 1.741 | 816.31 | 0.65 | |||
| alpha+beta+ gamma | 0.026 | 0.006 | 0.011 | 0.2 | 7 | 1.724 | 816.51 | 0.03 | ||||
| alpha+beta | 0.032 | 0.008 | 0.2 | 7 | 1.797 | 820.98 | 0.0004 | |||||
| alpha+gamma | 0.028 | 0.011 | 0.27 | 7 | 1.008 | 827.32 | 0.015 | |||||
| alpha§ | 0.038 | 0.22 | 7 | 1.231 | 833.22 | |||||||
| alpha+beta+ gamma+eta (Eq. 4) | 0.023 | 0.0116 | 0.0069 | -0.0032 | 0.2 | 7 | 1.88 | 815.88 | 0.43 | |||
| alpha+beta+ gamma+teta (Eq. 5) | 0.024 | 0.008 | 0.009 | 0.0013 | 0.2 | 7 | 1.79 | 815.82 | 0.41 | |||
| alpha+beta+ gamma+nu (Eq. 6) | 0.024 | 0.0088 | 0.0079 | 0.0044 | 0.2 | 7 | 1.48 | 816.25 | 0.61 | |||
| alpha+beta+nu | 0.023 | 0.0155 | 0.0002 | 0.2 | 7 | 1.85 | 817.24 | 0.053 | ||||
| alpha+beta+ gamma+delta linear increase in the number of incident cases until day 16 | 0.031 | 0.014 | 0.008 | 0.000005 | 0.2 | 7 | 2.19 | 829.5 | ||||
| alpha+beta+ gamma+delta (beta+ gamma+delta ) are associated with incidence | 0.033 | 0.008 | 0.002 | 0.000014 | 0.2 | 7 | 1.81 | 824.58 |
¥ Unless stated otherwise, a constant incidence prior to day 16 was assumed and all transmission parameters were associated with the number of cases and not incidence.
* L = -2log (likelihood).
€ p-value for the addition of the last parameter.
§ The model without alpha has a likelihood of infinity.