. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2012 May 1.

Published in final edited form as: Osteoarthritis Cartilage. 2011 Mar 23;19(5):543–549. doi: 10.1016/j.joca.2010.12.014

Table IV.

Predictive validity: correlation between hip joint space metric measurement (JSW) and future THR

Reference	Design and follow-up	Number of subjects/patients	Age, years, mean (SD) and % males	Type of JSW	Results
Reijman³	Community-based cohort, mean follow-up = 6.6 ± 0.5 years	3561	67.1 (7.98)	Mean JSW	Baseline JSW ≤ 2.5 mm predicts future THR OR right hip = 18.6, 95%CI = 10.7–32.3 OR left hip = 22.6, 95%CI = 11.8–43.0
Birrell¹⁴	Cohort of patients with a new episode of hip pain recruited by GPs, median duration follow-up = 36 months	195	63 (11), 32%	Minimal JSW	JSW predictive of future THR In a 0–6 composite score for prediction of THR, the weight of JSW is 2 (joint space > 2.5 = 0, JSW 1.5–2.5 = 1, joint space < 1.5 = 2)
Lievense¹⁵	Patients aged >50 years with hip pain, followed-up for a mean 2.7 ± 0.25 years then 5.8 ± 0.3 years	193 (mean follow-up 2.7 years) and 163 subjects (mean follow-up = 5.8 years)	65.6 (9.6), 26.9%	Minimal JSW	Baseline JSW < 2.5 mm predictor of future THR on univariate (OR for future 3 years THR = 6.6, P < 0.01; OR for future 6 years THR = 7.1, P < 0.01), but not on multivariate analysis
Dougados¹⁶	3-year RCT	506		Minimal JSW: 1-year change in JSW categorized in four grades (no change, worsening < 25%, worsening between 25% and 50%, worsening > 50%)	Baseline JSW < 2 mm associated with a THR during the 3 following years (relative risk = 1.85, 95%CI = 1.18–2.90) First year change in JSW associated with THR during the 2 following years, relative risk of being operated = 2.89; P < 0.01 (grade 1 vs 2); 2.09, P = 0.07 (grade 2 vs 3); and 5.3, P < 0.0001 (grade 3 vs 4)
Maillefert¹⁷	3-year RCT + 2 years of additional follow-up after end of the trial	422 (first analysis) and 384 (second analysis)	63.0 (6.8), 41.7% (first analysis) and 43.7% (second analysis)	Minimal JSW	A 1-year decrease in JSW ≥ 0.2 mm or 15% predicted THR during the next 4 years (sensibility and specificity of 75% and 68%; 74% and 78%, respectively) Similar results for 0–2 years changes in JSW

OR: Odds Ratio.

95%CI: 95% Confidential Interval.

mm: millimetre.