Table 3.
Secondary models to predict the incidence of reported cases and case fatality rate of dengue. Latin America and the Caribbean, 1995–2009*
| Variable | Incidence model | Case fatality rate model | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Pseudo R2 49.87%) | (Pseudo R2 48.3%) | |||
| Adjusted RR (95% CI) | P value | Adjusted RR (95% CI) | P value | |
| Region | ||||
| Brazil | Reference | Reference | ||
| Central America | 0.32 (0.32–0.32) | < 0.001 | 2.78 (2.48–3.11) | < 0.001 |
| Andean subregion | 0.37 (0.37–0.37) | < 0.001 | 3.41 (3.06–3.81) | < 0.001 |
| Non-Spanish-speaking Caribbean | 0.15 (0.15–0.15) | < 0.001 | 3.75 (2.66–5.29) | < 0.001 |
| Southern Cone | 0.25 (0.25–0.25) | < 0.001 | 6.03 (3.65–9.96) | < 0.001 |
| Spanish-speaking Caribbean | 0.13 (0.13–0.13) | < 0.001 | 13.01 (10.19–16.6) | < 0.001 |
| Age of endemicity (each 10 years) | 1.54 (1.53–1.54) | < 0.001 | 1.99 (1.82–2.17) | < 0.001 |
| Population density | ||||
| < 20 inhabitants/km2 | Reference | Reference | ||
| 20–120 inhabitants/km2 | 1.24 (1.24–1.24) | < 0.001 | 2.56 (1.93–3.40) | < 0.001 |
| > 120 inhabitants/km2 | 1.00 (0.99–1.01) | 0.91 | 2.50 (1.75–3.56) | < 0.001 |
| Annual rainfall (per 103 L/m2) | 2.11 (2.10–2.11) | < 0.001 | 0.95 (0.85–1.06) | 0.35 |
| HDI ≥ 0.83 | 1.26 (1.26–1.27) | < 0.001 | 0.27 (0.23–0.33) | < 0.001 |
*
This table presents two separate multivariate models: one to predict the dengue incidence rate and another to predict the case fatality rate. In the multivariate analysis, data were available for 7.07×109 population-years, 8,637,372 clinical cases, and 2,775 deaths.
RR = rate ratio; CI = confidence interval; HDI = Human Development Index.