Figure 5.

Probability of autochthonous transmission (moderate R₀). A shows the probability of autochthonous transmission (solid line) for three cities as a function of time in a single simulation (the same simulation as Figure 4). For each city, the threshold, p_AUTO = 0.5, is indicated by the horizontal dashed line, and the time of the first locally acquired human infection in the simulation is indicated by the vertical dotted line (no transmission was predicted in Paris, and none occurred in the simulation). B shows the timing of simulated versus predicted autochthonous transmission events for all cities where simulated autochthonous transmission occurred (N = 2,560). C is a histogram of the difference between the simulations and predictions in B (mean difference = 33 days, middle 95% = −171–242 days).