Table 2.

Comparison of Goodness-of-Fit (Bayesian Information Criterion) for Gompertz and Logistic Models of Mortality

Birth Cohort	Cohort Size at Age 88 Years, Persons	Bayesian Information Criterion
		Gompertz Model	Logistic Model
1886	111,657	−594,776.2	−588,049.5
1887	114,469	−625,303.0	−618,721.4
1888	128,768	−709,620.7	−712,575.5
1889	131,778	−710,087.1	−715,356.6
1890	135,393	−724,731.0	−722,939.6
1891	143,138	−767,138.3	−739,727.6
1892	152,058	−831,555.3	−810,951.8
1893	156,189	−890,022.6	−862,135.9
1894	160,835	−946,219.0	−905,787.1
1895	165,294	−921,650.3	−863,246.6

Note: Estimates were made in the age interval 88–106 years for 10 single-year U.S. birth cohorts and data of enhanced accuracy for individuals who applied for Social Security numbers in the Northern states (see explanation in the text). Cases when the Gompertz model fits data better than the logistic model are highlighted in bold.