Table 3.

 Expected level of activity in men aged 65 with or without screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm

Variable	Single cohort of men aged 65 (lifetime perspective)	Difference	Five consecutive cohorts of men aged 65 (5 year accumulated)	Difference
No of men invited	10 000	—	50 000	—
No of attendees (No of ultrasound examinations)	6670	—	26 680	—
No of patients screened:
Abdominal aortic aneurysm identified	267	—	1067	—
Under surveillance*	240	—	903	—
No of elective operations:
With screening	151	96	238	196
Without screening	55		42
No of deaths after elective surgery†:
With screening	12	8	18	15
Without screening	4		3
No of deaths after emergency surgery‡:
With screening	47	−35	30	−7
Without screening	82		37
Total No of deaths related to abdominal aortic aneurysm:
With screening	59	−27	49	9
Without screening	86		40

*Individuals with an identified abdominal aortic aneurysm who cannot be offered elective surgery because of contraindications.

†Counted as one year mortality (which amounts to about double the 30 day mortality). Number of deaths with screening includes non-attendees.

‡Counted as one year mortality. The average age at death from ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm is estimated to be about 75 years in model without screening.