Table 1.
Parameter values used in the model
| Probabilities of: | Baseline Value |
Range | Reference or Assumption |
|---|---|---|---|
| Laparoscopic Sterilization | |||
| Successful LS | 99–100 % | 99–100 % | 6, 7 |
| Choose HS in OR if LS failed | 20 % | 10–50 % | Expert opinion |
| Major complication | 1 % | 0.098–1.7 % | 7–11 |
| Minor complication | 0.5 % | 0.26–1 % | 10, 11 |
| Probability of death | 0 % | 7, 8, 12 | |
| HS in OR | |||
| Successful coil placement on first attempt | 90 % | 85–95 % | 12–19 |
| Major complication | 0.13 % | 0–0.4 % | 12, 14, 16 |
| Minor complication | 5 % | 4–7 % | 12–14, 16 |
| Choose second OR procedure | 70 % | 41–100 % | 13, 17–19 |
| Choose LS after one failed HS in OR | 83 % | 67–100 % | 13, 17–19 |
| Successful coil placement on second attempt | 84 % | 67–100 % | 12, 13 , 17, 19 |
| Probability of death | 0 % | 12 | |
| HS in Office | |||
| Successful coil placement on first HS attempt | 90 % | 76–96 % | 6, 15, 20–23 |
| Major complication | 0 % | 20, 24, 25 | |
| Minor complication | 5 % | 2–8 % | 20, 24, 25 |
| Choose second procedure after one failed | 70 % | 21–100 % | 6, 20, 24 |
| Choose HS | 33 % | 0–67 % | 20, 24 |
| Successful coil placement on second attempt | 80 % | 67–100 % | 6, 20, 22 |
| Probability of death | 0% | 15 | |
| HSG Outcomes | |||
| Returning for HSG at three months | 69 % | 13–94 % | 6, 13, 18, 21, 23, 24 |
| HSG: Coils present | 97 % | 95–99 % | 12, 14, 16, 24 |
| HSG: Blockage at three months | 96 % | 84–100 % | 6, 12–14, 16, 21, 23, 24 |
| Returning for HSG at six months | 69 % | 13–94 % | Assume same as for three months |
| HSG: Blockage at six months | 98 % | 93–100 % | 12–14, 24 |
| Assumed sterile if do not return for HSG | 96 % | 84–99 % | Assume same as for women who do return at three and six months |
| If HSG at three months shows non-occlusion | |||
| Initial procedure in OR | |||
| Choosing another procedure | 30 % | Practice database | |
| Choosing second HS in OR | 50 % | Practice database | |
| Occlusion with second HS in OR | 73 % | 45–100% | 16, Practice database |
| Initial procedure in office | |||
| Choosing another procedure | Assume same as OR | ||
| Choosing second HS in office | Assume same as OR | ||
| Occlusion with second HS in office | Assume same as OR | ||
| If two failed HS attempts | |||
| LS after two failed HS in OR | 87 % | 16, Practice database | |
| LS after two failed HS in office | 100% | 20 |
HS = Hysteroscopic Sterilizatinon
HSG = Hysterosalpingogram
LS = Laparoscopic Sterilization
OR = Operating Room