Table 1.
Estimates of fitting parameters and the basic reproduction number for the first wave of the 2009 pandemic in different health regions in the province of Manitoba
| Parameters | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Region | r (95% CI) | K (CRC)* | tm | R0 (95% CI) |
| Burntwood | 0.3116 (0.2503-0.4208) | 187 (186) | June 5 | 2.24 (1.93-2.88) |
| North Eastman | 0.1991 (0.1734-0.2390) | 56 (56) | June 14 | 1.70 (1.60-1.88) |
| Norman | 0.1746 (0.1458-0.2217) | 57 (58) | June 8 | 1.60 (1.49-1.80) |
| Interlake | 0.1606 (0.1353-0.2023) | 53 (54) | June 14 | 1.55 (1.45-1.72) |
| Winnipeg | 0.2001 (0.1730-0.2397) | 395 (401) | June 9 | 1.71 (1.60-1.89) |
| Manitoba | 0.1949 (0.1700-0.2306) | 878 (891) | June 9 | 1.69 (1.58-1.84) |
*CRC cumulative reported cases. Estimates correspond to the best fit of the Richards model to the cumulative number of confirmed cases. 95% confidence interval for R0 corresponds to the average generation time of 2.9 days.