Table 2.

Estimated Odds Ratios for Incident AIDS According to Human Immunodeficiency Virus Viral Load Set Point, Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study, 1984–1998^a

Method	Estimate of β1	SE or SDb	OR = exp(β1)	95% CI or 95% PIc
Maximum likelihood	1.072	0.308d	2.92	1.60, 5.34e
Bayesianf
MCMCg	0.905	0.285	2.47	1.41, 4.32
	0.905		2.47	1.42, 4.32
Rejection samplingg	0.908	0.288	2.48	1.41, 4.36
	0.900		2.46	1.41, 4.42
Data augmentationh	0.901	0.283	2.46	1.41, 4.29

Abbreviations: AIDS, acquired immunodeficiency syndrome; CI, confidence interval; MCMC, Markov chain Monte Carlo; OR, odds ratio; PI, posterior interval; SD, standard deviation; SE, standard error.

^aData were obtained from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (13). Results were adjusted for age and race.

^bStandard deviation unless otherwise specified.

^c95% posterior interval unless otherwise specified.

^dStandard error.

^e95% confidence interval.

^fAll Bayesian methods used a lognormal odds-ratio prior with 95% limits of 1/4 and 4.

^gFirst estimate of β₁ is the mean of 20,000 draws or 6,718 rejection-sampling draws; first limits are exp(mean ± 1.96 × SD), where the mean and SD are computed from the draws. Second estimate is the median; second limits are the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles. The simulation error was 0.0006 for MCMC and 0.0033 for rejection sampling.

^hEstimate is the posterior mode (maximum of posterior); limits are exp(mean ± 1.96 × SD), where the SD is the β₁ diagonal entry from the inverse of the total (i.e., data and prior) information matrix.