Table 1.
The two new problems studied in Experiment 1, and the main results.
Problem (N) | Recent events |
Experimental results |
The predictions of I–SAW |
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Recent choice | Recent payoff from R | Contingent R-rate | Implied recency effect | R-rate over all trials | Contingent R-rate | Implied recency effect | R-rate over all trials | ||
1 (48) | S: 0 with certainty R: (10, 0.1; −1) | S | High: +10 | 0.23 | + | 0.29 | 0.25 | + | 0.41 |
Low: −1 | 0.06 | 0.11 | |||||||
R | High: +10 | 0.60 | – | 0.81 | – | ||||
Low: −1 | 0.79 | 0.82 | |||||||
2 (48) | S: 0 with certainty R: (1, 0.9; −10) | S | High: +1 | 0.21 | – | 0.57 | 0.18 | – | 0.59 |
Low: −10 | 0.31 | 0.20 | |||||||
R | High: +1 | 0.84 | + | 0.89 | + | ||||
Low: −10 | 0.69 | 0.75 |
The contingent R-rates are the proportions of R choices as a function of the recent choice and the recent payoff from R. The implied recency effect is the sign of the difference between the R-rates after high and low payoffs from R given the same recent choice. When the recent choice is S, the recent payoffs from R are the recent “forgone payoffs,” and the contingent R-rate is the proportion of switches from S to R. When the recent choice is R, the recent payoffs from R are the recent “obtained payoffs”, and the contingent R-rate is the proportion of repeated R choices. N is the number of subjects.