Table 1.

The two new problems studied in Experiment 1, and the main results.

Problem (N)		Recent events		Experimental results			The predictions of I–SAW
		Recent choice	Recent payoff from R	Contingent R-rate	Implied recency effect	R-rate over all trials	Contingent R-rate	Implied recency effect	R-rate over all trials
1 (48)	S: 0 with certainty R: (10, 0.1; −1)	S	High: +10	0.23	+	0.29	0.25	+	0.41
			Low: −1	0.06			0.11
		R	High: +10	0.60	–		0.81	–
			Low: −1	0.79			0.82
2 (48)	S: 0 with certainty R: (1, 0.9; −10)	S	High: +1	0.21	–	0.57	0.18	–	0.59
			Low: −10	0.31			0.20
		R	High: +1	0.84	+		0.89	+
			Low: −10	0.69			0.75

The contingent R-rates are the proportions of R choices as a function of the recent choice and the recent payoff from R. The implied recency effect is the sign of the difference between the R-rates after high and low payoffs from R given the same recent choice. When the recent choice is S, the recent payoffs from R are the recent “forgone payoffs,” and the contingent R-rate is the proportion of switches from S to R. When the recent choice is R, the recent payoffs from R are the recent “obtained payoffs”, and the contingent R-rate is the proportion of repeated R choices. N is the number of subjects.