Table 2.

Six 50–50 problems that were examined in previous research.

Problem (N)		Recent events		Experimental results			The predictions of I–SAW
		Recent choice	Recent payoff from R	Contingent R-rate	Implied recency effect	R-rate over all trials	Contingent R-rate	Implied recency effect	R-rate over all trials
3 (10)	S: 10 with certainty R: (21, 0.5; 1)	S	High: +21	0.58	+	0.63	0.27	+	0.58
			Low: +1	0.33			0.21
		R	High: +21	0.79	+		0.85	+
			Low: +1	0.59			0.81
4 (10)	S: −10 with certainty R: (−1, 0.5; −21)	S	High: −1	0.39	+	0.45	0.19	+	0.42
			Low: −21	0.21			0.15
		R	High: −1	0.56	+		0.79	+
			Low: −21	0.53			0.73
5 (45)	S: 0 with certainty R: (1000, 0.5; −1000)	S	High: +1000	0.44	+	0.48	0.23	+	0.50
			Low: −1000	0.24			0.17
		R	High: +1000	0.71	+		0.83	+
			Low: −1000	0.55			0.77
6 (45)	S: 1000 with certainty R: (2000, 0.5; 0)	S	High: +2000	0.35	+	0.40	0.23	+	0.50
			Low: 0	0.15			0.17
		R	High: +2000	0.74	+		0.83	+
			Low: 0	0.49			0.77
7 (45)	S: 400 with certainty R: (1400, 0.50; −600)	S	High: +1400	0.40	+	0.45	0.23	+	0.50
			Low: −600	0.17			0.17
		R	High: +1400	0.73	+		0.83	+
			Low: −600	0.55			0.77
8 (45)	S: 1400 with certainty R: (2400, 0.5; 400)	S	High: +2400	0.47	+	0.49	0.23	+	0.50
			Low: +400	0.19			0.17
		R	High: +2400	0.79	+		0.83	+
			Low: +400	0.52			0.77

Problems in 3 and 4 were studied by Haruvy and Erev (2002), Problems 5–8 were studied by Erev et al. (2008). The format of the table and the meaning of the variables are the same as in Table 1.