Table 3.
The 12 problems studied in Experiment 2. The format of the table and the meaning of the variables are the same as in Table 1.
| Problem (N) | Recent events |
Experimental results |
The predictions of I–SAW |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recent choice | Recent payoff from R | Contingent R-rate | Implied recency effect | R-rate over all trials | Contingent R-rate | Implied recency effect | R-rate over all trials | ||
| 9 (28) | S: 7 with certainty R: (16.5, 0.01; 6.9) | S | High: +16.5 | 0.40 | + | 0.45 | 0.34 | + | 0.47 |
| Low: +6.9 | 0.04 | 0.07 | |||||||
| R | High: +16.5 | 0.94 | – | 0.82 | – | ||||
| Low: +6.9 | 0.95 | 0.91 | |||||||
| 10 (28) | S: −9.4 with certainty R: (−2, 0.05; −10.4) | S | High: −2 | 0.15 | + | 0.26 | 0.18 | + | 0.30 |
| Low: −10.4 | 0.06 | 0.08 | |||||||
| R | High: −2 | 0.70 | – | 0.69 | – | ||||
| Low: −10.4 | 0.80 | 0.80 | |||||||
| 11 (28) | S: −4.1 with certainty R: (1.3, 0.05; −4.3) | S | High: +1.3 | 0.27 | + | 0.54 | 0.28 | + | 0.44 |
| Low: −4.3 | 0.06 | 0.09 | |||||||
| R | High: +1.3 | 0.86 | – | 0.84 | – | ||||
| Low: −4.3 | 0.94 | 0.87 | |||||||
| 12 (28) | S: −18.7 with certainty R: (−7.1, 0.07; −19.6) | S | High: −7.1 | 0.29 | + | 0.38 | 0.24 | + | 0.37 |
| Low: −19.6 | 0.06 | 0.10 | |||||||
| R | High: −7.1 | 0.85 | – | 0.78 | – | ||||
| Low: −19.6 | 0.87 | 0.82 | |||||||
| 13 (28) | S: −7.9 with certainty R: (5, 0.08; −9.1) | S | High: +5 | 0.20 | + | 0.31 | 0.23 | + | 0.37 |
| Low: −19.6 | 0.06 | 0.10 | |||||||
| R | High: +5 | 0.86 | + | 0.78 | –* | ||||
| Low: −19.6 | 0.84 | 0.81 | |||||||
| 14 (28) | S: −25.4 with certainty R: (−8.9, 0.08; −26.3) | S | High: −8.9 | 0.22 | + | 0.45 | 0.28 | + | 0.47 |
| Low: −26.3 | 0.07 | 0.11 | |||||||
| R | High: −8.9 | 0.89 | – | 0.85 | – | ||||
| Low: −26.3 | 0.90 | 0.86 | |||||||
| 15 (28) | S: 11.5 with certainty R: (25.7, 0.1; 8.1) | S | High: +25.7 | 0.29 | + | 0.30 | 0.18 | + | 0.31 |
| Low: +8.1 | 0.07 | 0.09 | |||||||
| R | High: +25.7 | 0.81 | + | 0.72 | –* | ||||
| Low: +8.1 | 0.78 | 0.77 | |||||||
| 16 (28) | S: −15.5 with certainty R: (−8.8, 0.6; −19.5) | S | High: −8.8 | 0.42 | + | 0.68 | 0.30 | + | 0.73 |
| Low: −19.5 | 0.19 | 0.27 | |||||||
| R | High: −8.8 | 0.91 | + | 0.91 | + | ||||
| Low: −19.5 | 0.75 | 0.88 | |||||||
| 17 (28) | S: 2.2 with certainty R: (3, 0.93; −7.2) | S | High: +3 | 0.13 | – | 0.47 | 0.19 | – | 0.64 |
| Low: −7.2 | 0.15 | 0.23 | |||||||
| R | High: +3 | 0.85 | + | 0.90 | + | ||||
| Low: −7.2 | 0.68 | 0.77 | |||||||
| 18 (28) | S: 25.2 with certainty R: (26.5, 0.94; 8.3) | S | High: +25.2 | 0.14 | – | 0.52 | 0.18 | – | 0.65 |
| Low: +8.3 | 0.32 | 0.24 | |||||||
| R | High: +25.2 | 0.86 | + | 0.91 | + | ||||
| Low: +8.3 | 0.82 | 0.77 | |||||||
| 19 (28) | S: 6.8 with certainty R: (7.3, 0.96; −8.5) | S | High: +7.3 | 0.08 | – | 0.50 | 0.13 | – | 0.57 |
| Low: −8.5 | 0.23 | 0.18 | |||||||
| R | High: +7.3 | 0.92 | + | 0.91 | + | ||||
| Low: −8.5 | 0.77 | 0.72 | |||||||
| 20 (28) | S: 11 with certainty R (11.4, 0.97; 1.9) | S | High: +11.4 | 0.09 | – | 0.57 | 0.15 | – | 0.64 |
| Low: +1.9 | 0.19 | 0.25 | |||||||
| R | High: +11.4 | 0.94 | + | 0.92 | + | ||||
| Low: +1.9 | 0.71 | 0.77 | |||||||