Table 1.

Data inputs for model variables

Variable	Mean	Lower limit	Upper limit	Distribution type	Reference
Probability
Infection risk
0 to 4 years	0.034	0.017	0.065	Triangular	27
5 to 14 years	0.056	0.048	0.065	Triangular	27
15 to 29 years	0.029	0.023	0.036	Triangular	27
30 to 44 years	0.030	0.024	0.038	Triangular	27
45 to 59 years	0.024	0.015	0.035	Triangular	27
60 years and up	0.005	0.002	0.01	Triangular	27
PKDL after clinical infection	–	0.05	0.15	Uniform	25
PKDL after subclinical infection	–	0.15	0.2	Uniform	25
Subclinical infection	0.50	0.19	0.80	Triangular	45
Mortality (standard Amphotericin B)	0.003	–	–	–	29
Mortality (after treatment)	0.10	–	–	–	3,4,22,23
Mortality (no treatment)	–	0.75	0.95	Uniform	30
Rk39 dipstick sensitivity	0.9	0.85	0.99	Triangular	2,31–33
Rk39 dipstick specificity	0.94	0.90	0.99	Triangular	2,31–33
Elevated creatinine	0.4	–	–	–	43,44
Cure rate (standard Amphotericin B)	0.97	0.96	0.99	Triangular	2,34
Cost (US$)
Crocin (500 mg)	0.05	–	–	–	Expert opinion
Rk39 dipstick test	1.16	–	–	–	35
Lost wages (per day)*†	7.50	3.24	11.68	Triangular	5
Standard Amphotericin B
Hospital accommodations (per day)	–	3.87	4.09	Uniform	5
Medical workup†	68.81	67.54	69.71	Triangular	5
Medicine†‡	78.42	48.65	107.02	Triangular	5
Food (per day)†	1.34	1.15	1.76	Triangular	5
Transportation†	11.72	8.67	16.82	Triangular	5
Liposomal amphotericin
Treatment and care	386.61	278.68	483.97	Triangular	17

^*Includes lost wages of patient and attendant during hospital stay.

^†Reported as a median and interquartile range (IQR).

^‡Standard amphotericin B, medical supplies, and other drugs such as aspirin and antibiotics if necessary.

PKDL = post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis.