Table 3.
Interval between Baseline Osteopenia and the Development of Osteoporosis in 10% of Study Participants, According to Age, BMI, and Estrogen-Use Status.
| Variable | Adjusted Interval* | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Mild Osteopenia | Moderate Osteopenia | Advanced Osteopenia | |
| no. of years (95% CI)† | |||
| Age
| |||
| 67 yr | — | 5.6 (4.9–6.4) | 1.3 (1.1–1.6) |
|
| |||
| 70 yr | — | 5.1 (4.6–5.7) | 1.2 (1.0–1.4) |
|
| |||
| 75 yr | 16.2 (13.0–20.2) | 4.4 (3.9–4.9) | 1.0 (0.9–1.2) |
|
| |||
| 80 yr | 13.8 (10.9–17.6) | 3.7 (3.2–4.3) | 0.9 (0.8–1.0) |
|
| |||
| 85 yr | 11.8 (9.0–15.5) | 3.2 (2.6–3.9) | 0.8 (0.6–0.9) |
|
| |||
| BMI
| |||
| 18.5 | — | 4.4 (3.5–5.4) | 0.8 (0.6–0.9) |
|
| |||
| 25.0 | 18.7 (14.5–24.0) | 4.6 (4.1–5.1) | 1.0 (0.9–1.2) |
|
| |||
| 30.0 | 14.6 (12.0–17.9) | 4.8 (4.2–5.5) | 1.3 (1.1–1.5) |
|
| |||
| Estrogen use
| |||
| Current | — | 6.9 (5.7–8.4) | 1.6 (1.3–2.0) |
|
| |||
| Past or none | 16.1 (12.9–20.0) | 4.3 (3.9–4.8) | 1.0 (0.9–1.2) |
Data are for the estimated time to the development of osteoporosis, based on a model adjusted for age, BMI, and status with respect to estrogen use, any fracture after 50 years of age, current smoking, current or previous oral glucocorticoid use, and rheumatoid arthritis, as well as interaction of T-score group with BMI.
Estimates greater than 15 years have questionable reliability, owing to excessive extrapolation required to estimate the time for 10% of women to make a transition to osteoporosis. Estimates greater than 15 years with 95% confidence intervals excluding 15 years are not presented.