Table 1. Observed (predicted) mean (
), standard deviation (
), mean absolute error (MAE) and Pearson product moment correlation coefficient (r) for seasonal rainfall variables derived from daily rainfall observations at MUBFS for the period 1981–2010.
| ONS | DUR (days) | P (mm) | RD (%) | INT (mm day−1) | |
| (A) First Dry1 | |||||
|
17 December | 73 | 103.17 | 16.5 | 8.25 |
| (13 December) | (80) | (135.54) | (18.3) | (8.83) | |
|
10.8 days | 21.53 | 74.83 | 5.8 | 3.45 |
| (11.9 days) | (22.1) | (86.52) | (6.0) | (3.43) | |
| MAE | 3.2 days | 8.2 | 36.65 | 2.9 | 1.14 |
| R | 0.84 | 0.91 | 0.82 | 0.67 | 0.87 |
| (B) Short Rains2 | |||||
|
28 February | 95 | 535.26 | 51.5 | 11.12 |
| (3 March) | (91) | (512.86) | (51.4) | (11.16) | |
|
16.4 days | 20.7 | 141.28 | 7.4 | 2.29 |
| (16.6 days) | (20.6) | (142.23) | (7.8) | (2.49) | |
| MAE | 3.8 days | 6.0 | 23.78 | 1.3 | 0.31 |
| R | 0.96 | 0.95 | 0.98 | 0.97 | 0.99 |
| (C) Second Dry2 | |||||
|
3 June | 68 | 111.63 | 22.6 | 7.12 |
| (3 June) | (69) | (121.93) | (21.8) | (7.44) | |
|
13.3 days | 21.8 | 81.52 | 14.9 | 3.28 |
| (31.2 days) | (22.9) | (95.02) | (7.6) | (3.35) | |
| MAE | 2.5 days | 4.9 | 16.15 | 3.4 | 0.98 |
| R | 0.94 | 0.93 | 0.96 | 0.74 | 0.87 |
| (D) Long Rains | |||||
|
10 August | 129 | 923.11 | 59.9 | 12.37 |
| (12 August) | (124) | (877.35) | (60.1) | (12.34) | |
|
17.4 days | 22.8 | 173.27 | 9.0 | 2.81 |
| (18.0 days) | (24.7) | (160.34) | (9.8) | (2.72) | |
| MAE | 2.3 days | 7.1 | 46.97 | 1.2 | 0.30 |
| R | 0.98 | 0.91 | 0.94 | 0.97 | 0.99 |
1
The first dry season begins in December of the previous year and continues into February of the current year.
2
First rain and second dry season statistics are omitted for 1993 due to missing data for March, April and June of 1993.