Table 6.
Number of screening rounds and age ranges of preferred strategy (see table 5) per threshold of cost effectiveness* where sensitivity of human papillomavirus (HPV) screening is 90% or 95%, and laboratory costs of HPV test are €21 or €33
| Scenarios | Laboratory costs HPV test €21 | Laboratory costs HPV test €33 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90% sensitivity | 95% sensitivity | 90% sensitivity | 95% sensitivivity | |||||||||
| 20 000 | 30 000 | 50 000 | 20 000 | 30 000 | 50 000 | 20 000 | 30 000 | 50 000 | 20 000 | 30 000 | 50 000 | |
| Base case (low risk) | 3 (30-46) | 4 (30-54) | 5 (30-58) | 3 (30-46) | 4 (30-54) | 5 (30-62) | 3 (30-46) | 3 (30-46) | 5 (30-54) | 3 (30-46) | 3 (30-46) | 4 (30-54) |
| Average risk,, high HPV prevalence | 4 (30-54) | 5 (30-60) | 8 (25-67) | 4 (32-56) | 5 (30-58) | 8 (27-69) | 5 (30-50)† | 6 (30-55)† | 8 (30-65)† | 5 (30-50)† | 6 (30-55)† | 8 (30-65)† |
| Average risk, low sensitivity and specificity of cytology | 4 (32-53) | 5 (30-58) | 8 (30-65) | 4 (32-56) | 5 (30-58) | 7 (30-66) | 3 (32-46) | 5 (30-58) | 6 (30-65) | 4 (30-54) | 5 (30-58) | 7 (30-66) |
| Low risk, low specificity of cytology | 3 (30-46) | 4 (30-54) | 5 (30-58) | 3 (30-46) | 4 (30-54) | 5 (30-65) | 3 (30-46) | 4 (30-46) | 5 (30-58) | 3 (30-46) | 4 (30-46) | 5 (30-54) |
| High risk, high HPV prevalence | 5 (32-53) | 7 (30-58) | 10 (30-65) | 5 (32-56) | 7 (30-58) | 9 (30-66) | 6 (30-55) † | 7 (30-60) † | 10 (30-66) † | 6 (30-55) † | 7 (30-60) † | 10 (30-66) † |
| High risk, no past screening, low sensitivity, specificity, and cost of cytology | 13 (30-66)† | 17 (30-62)† | 20 (27-65)† | 13 (30-66)† | 17 (30-62)† | 20 (27-65)† | 13 (30-66)† | 17 (30-62)† | 20 (27-65)† | 13 (30-66)† | 17 (30-62)† | 20 (27-65)† |
€1.00 (£0.84; $1.31).
*Costs (€) per QALY gained.
†Primary cytology based programme.