FIG. 3.

Approximate survival function (Equation 18) (red, dashed) and exact survival function (Equation 9) (blue) of the quantity for one locus, conditional on the numbers of lineages k_A and k_B remaining at the divergence time from each taxon. Pr(V ≥ v|K_A = k_A, K_B = k_B) is the probability that the GLASS estimate exceeds the divergence time τ_AB by more than v coalescent units. In order from top to bottom, the numbers of lineages that were used to generate the curves are (k_A, k_B) = (1,1), (1,2), (2,2), (2,3), (3,3), (3,5), (5,5), (5,7), where k_A is the number of lineages remaining in taxon A at the divergence time and k_B is the corresponding number of lineages remaining in taxon B. For the top curve, one lineage is sampled from each taxon and the approximation is exact.