Table 4. Incidence of cervical cancer due to HPV 16/18 in French women in each scenario 10, 20 and 50 years after initiation of vaccination (t = 0).

Time after introduction of vaccine	10 years	20 years	50 years	100 years
Without vaccination	9.6	9.6	9.6	9.6
Scenario 1	8.9 (−7.3%)	6.5 (−32.3%)	1.6 (−83%)	0.5 (−94.8%)
Scenario 2	8.7 (−9.4%)	6.0 (−37.5%)	0.8 (−91.7%)	0.02 (−99.8%)
Scenario 3	8.1 (−15.6%)	4.8 (−50%)	0.5 (−94.8%)	0.05 (−99.5%)
Scenario 4	7.9 (−17.7%)	4.2 (−56.3%)	0.2 (−97.9%)	<10−5 (−100%)
Scenario 5	8.5 (−11.5%)	5.3 (−44.8%)	0.7 (−92.7%)	0.07 (−99.3%)

Vaccine coverage was supposed constant in each scenario. In parentheses, % of reduction in cervical cancer incidence compared to the case without vaccination.