Table 2. Risk (%) of cytology and hrHPV testing at baseline and at 6-month follow-up, stratified according to baseline cytology in BMD and >BMD.
(A) Women with borderline and mild dyskaryosis | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CIN3+
|
CIN2+
|
|||||||||
BMD | Risk | 5 Year | Risk | 10 Year | Risk | 5 Year | Risk | 10 Year | ||
Baseline | Follow-up (6 months)a | At risk | (%) | 95%CI | (%) | 95%CI | (%) | 95%CI | (%) | 95%CI |
All | 210 | 22.5 | 17.0–29.1 | 23.1 | 17.4–30.4 | 31.0 | 25.0–37.8 | 33.0 | 26.6–40.1 | |
Cytology negativeb,c | 65 | 4.9 | 1.6–13.8 | 4.9 | 1.6–14.3 | 12.5 | 6.4–22.9 | 12.5 | 6.3–23.4 | |
Cytology positiveb,d | 127 | 30.9 | 23.0–40.1 | 31.8 | 23.3–41.7 | 38.0 | 29.7–47.0 | 41.5 | 32.7–50.9 | |
HPV negative | 84 | 0.0 | 0.0–5.1 | 0.0 | 0.0–5.7 | 9.9 | 5.1–18.5 | 11.2 | 5.8–20.5 | |
Cytology negativeb | 37 | 0.0 | 0.0–10.2 | 0.0 | 0.0–10.7 | 5.5 | 1.5–18.1 | 5.5 | 1.5–18.6 | |
Cytology positiveb | 40 | 0.0 | 0.0–10.7 | 0.0 | 0.0–12.5 | 10.9 | 4.3–25.1 | 13.7 | 5.7–29.5 | |
HPV negative | 70 | 0.0 | 0.0–6.1 | 0.0 | 0.0–6.6 | 10.4 | 5.1–20.1 | 10.4 | 5.1–20.5 | |
HPV positive | 9 | 0.0 | 0.0–35.4 | 0.0 | 0.0–43.4 | 12.5 | 2.2–47.1 | 25.0 | 6.6–61.1 | |
Double negative | 36 | 0.0 | 0.0–10.4 | 0.0 | 0.0–11.0 | 5.6 | 1.5–18.5 | 5.6 | 1.5–19.0 | |
Cytology and/or HPV positive | 48 | 0.0 | 0.0–9.2 | 0.0 | 0.0–10.4 | 13.4 | 6.2–26.4 | 15.7 | 7.5–30.1 | |
HPV positivec,d | 126 | 37.5 | 29.0–46.9 | 38.5 | 29.5–48.4 | 44.9 | 37.1–52.9 | 47.6 | 38.5–56.9 | |
Cytology negativeb | 28 | 11.6 | 3.9–29.9 | 11.6 | 3.6–31.5 | 22.0 | 10.5–40.5 | 22.0 | 10.0–41.7 | |
Cytology positivec,d | 87 | 44.9 | 34.2–56.1 | 46.3 | 35.0–57.9 | 50.3 | 39.6–60.9 | 54.2 | 43.1–64.9 | |
HPV negative | 29 | 0.0 | 0.0–13.8 | 0.0 | 0.0–15.5 | 11.0 | 3.8–27.9 | 11.0 | 3.6–29.2 | |
HPV positivec,d | 91 | 46.3 | 35.8–57.1 | 47.6 | 36.5–59.0 | 52.2 | 41.8–62.4 | 55.9 | 45.0–66.3 | |
Double negative | 15 | 0.0 | 0.0–22.8 | 0.0 | 0.0–25.9 | 6.7 | 1.1–30.9 | 6.7 | 1.0–33.4 | |
Cytology and/or HPV positivec,d | 105 | 40.6 | 31.1–50.9 | 41.2 | 31.1–52.0 | 47.4 | 37.8–57.1 | 50.6 | 40.6–60.6 | |
HPV16 | 55 | 49.8 | 36.2–63.4 | 49.8 | 35.6–64.0 | 55.3 | 41.8–68.1 | 57.4 | 43.4–70.3 | |
nonHPV16 | 71 | 29.8 | 18.4–40.2 | 29.8 | 19.3–43.0 | 38.7 | 28.1–50.5 | 40.3 | 29.0–52.7 | |
(B) Women with moderate and severe dyskaryosis | ||||||||||
CIN3+
|
CIN2+
|
|||||||||
>BMD | Risk | 5 Year | Risk | 10 Year | Risk | 5 Year | Risk | 10 Year | ||
Baseline | Follow-up (6 months)a | At risk | (%) | 95%CI | (%) | 95%CI | (%) | 95%CI | (%) | 95%CI |
All | 132 | 45.1 | 36.4–54.1 | 47.0 | 37.8–56.4 | 51.2 | 42.6–59.7 | 55.3 | 46.4–63.9 | |
Cytology negativeb | 21 | 5.0 | 0.9–23.6 | 15.0 | 5.1–36.7 | 5.0 | 0.9–23.6 | 15.0 | 5.1–36.7 | |
Cytology positiveb | 98 | 53.9 | 43.5–64.0 | 53.9 | 42.9–64.5 | 60.7 | 50.7–69.9 | 64.0 | 53.7–73.2 | |
HPV negative | 31 | 7.3 | 2.0–23.6 | 11.2 | 3.4–31.0 | 16.9 | 7.4–34.2 | 24.2 | 11.6–43.6 | |
Cytology negativeb | 10 | 0.0 | 0.0–29.9 | 11.1 | 1.8–45.6 | 0.0 | 0.0–29.9 | 11.1 | 1.8–45.6 | |
Cytology positiveb | 18 | 13.5 | 3.7–39.1 | 13.5 | 3.0–44.3 | 29.4 | 13.3–53.1 | 36.5 | 16.9–61.9 | |
HPV negative | 30 | 7.4 | 2.0–23.8 | 11.3 | 3.5–31.1 | 14.1 | 5.6–31.3 | 21.6 | 9.7–41.3 | |
HPV positive | 1 | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | 100 | 20.7–100 | 100 | 20.7–100 | |
Double negative | 10 | 0.0 | 0.0–29.9 | 11.1 | 1.8–45.6 | 0.0 | 0.0–29.9 | 11.1 | 1.8–45.6 | |
Cytology and/or HPV positive | 21 | 11.2 | 3.0–33.7 | 11.2 | 2.6–37.5 | 25.0 | 11.2–46.9 | 30.8 | 14.2–54.5 | |
HPV positivee | 101 | 56.6 | 46.4–66.3 | 57.8 | 47.2–67.7 | 61.4 | 51.5–70.4 | 64.6 | 54.6–73.5 | |
Cytology negativeb | 11 | 9.1 | 1.6–37.8 | 18.2 | 5.1–47.7 | 9.1 | 1.6–37.8 | 18.2 | 5.1–47.7 | |
Cytology positiveb,e | 82 | 62.2 | 50.7–72.4 | 62.2 | 50.3–72.8 | 67.3 | 56.4–76.6 | 69.1 | 58.0–78.4 | |
HPV negative | 14 | 0.0 | 0.0–24.3 | 0.0 | 0.0–25.9 | 7.7 | 1.4–33.3 | 7.7 | 1.3–34.6 | |
HPV positivee | 81 | 65.1 | 53.7–75.0 | 66.8 | 55.1–76.7 | 68.8 | 57.9–77.9 | 72.8 | 62.0–81.5 | |
Double negative | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0–43.4 | 0.0 | 0.0–43.4 | 0.0 | 0.0–43.4 | 0.0 | 0.0–43.4 | |
Cytology and/or HPV positivee | 91 | 58.0 | 47.2–68.1 | 59.4 | 48.2–69.7 | 62.7 | 52.3–72.1 | 66.3 | 55.7–75.4 | |
HPV16 | 50 | 63.7 | 49.6–75.8 | 63.7 | 49.1–76.2 | 65.3 | 51.3–77.1 | 65.3 | 50.8–77.4 | |
NonHPV16 | 51 | 48.7 | 34.5–63.1 | 51.5 | 36.7–66.0 | 57.5 | 43.6–70.3 | 63.8 | 49.8–75.8 |
Abbreviations: CIN3+=cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 and cancer; CIN2+=cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2, 3 and cancer; 95% CI=95% confidence interval; HPV=human papillomavirus.
All women with a follow-up of <6 months were excluded.
Cytology divided into negative (normal) and positive (borderline or mild dyskaryosis and worse).
Including one adenocarcinoma in situ (AIS).
Including one squamous cell carcinoma (SCC).
Including one SCC, one adenocarcinoma, and one AIS.
Time to event is set equal to histological diagnosis of CIN3+ lesion.