Table 2. Risk (%) of cytology and hrHPV testing at baseline and at 6-month follow-up, stratified according to baseline cytology in BMD and >BMD.

(A) Women with borderline and mild dyskaryosis
			CIN3+				CIN2+
		BMD	Risk	5 Year	Risk	10 Year	Risk	5 Year	Risk	10 Year
Baseline	Follow-up (6 months)a	At risk	(%)	95%CI	(%)	95%CI	(%)	95%CI	(%)	95%CI
All		210	22.5	17.0–29.1	23.1	17.4–30.4	31.0	25.0–37.8	33.0	26.6–40.1
	Cytology negativeb,c	65	4.9	1.6–13.8	4.9	1.6–14.3	12.5	6.4–22.9	12.5	6.3–23.4
	Cytology positiveb,d	127	30.9	23.0–40.1	31.8	23.3–41.7	38.0	29.7–47.0	41.5	32.7–50.9
HPV negative		84	0.0	0.0–5.1	0.0	0.0–5.7	9.9	5.1–18.5	11.2	5.8–20.5
	Cytology negativeb	37	0.0	0.0–10.2	0.0	0.0–10.7	5.5	1.5–18.1	5.5	1.5–18.6
	Cytology positiveb	40	0.0	0.0–10.7	0.0	0.0–12.5	10.9	4.3–25.1	13.7	5.7–29.5
	HPV negative	70	0.0	0.0–6.1	0.0	0.0–6.6	10.4	5.1–20.1	10.4	5.1–20.5
	HPV positive	9	0.0	0.0–35.4	0.0	0.0–43.4	12.5	2.2–47.1	25.0	6.6–61.1
	Double negative	36	0.0	0.0–10.4	0.0	0.0–11.0	5.6	1.5–18.5	5.6	1.5–19.0
	Cytology and/or HPV positive	48	0.0	0.0–9.2	0.0	0.0–10.4	13.4	6.2–26.4	15.7	7.5–30.1
HPV positivec,d		126	37.5	29.0–46.9	38.5	29.5–48.4	44.9	37.1–52.9	47.6	38.5–56.9
	Cytology negativeb	28	11.6	3.9–29.9	11.6	3.6–31.5	22.0	10.5–40.5	22.0	10.0–41.7
	Cytology positivec,d	87	44.9	34.2–56.1	46.3	35.0–57.9	50.3	39.6–60.9	54.2	43.1–64.9
	HPV negative	29	0.0	0.0–13.8	0.0	0.0–15.5	11.0	3.8–27.9	11.0	3.6–29.2
	HPV positivec,d	91	46.3	35.8–57.1	47.6	36.5–59.0	52.2	41.8–62.4	55.9	45.0–66.3
	Double negative	15	0.0	0.0–22.8	0.0	0.0–25.9	6.7	1.1–30.9	6.7	1.0–33.4
	Cytology and/or HPV positivec,d	105	40.6	31.1–50.9	41.2	31.1–52.0	47.4	37.8–57.1	50.6	40.6–60.6
HPV16		55	49.8	36.2–63.4	49.8	35.6–64.0	55.3	41.8–68.1	57.4	43.4–70.3
nonHPV16		71	29.8	18.4–40.2	29.8	19.3–43.0	38.7	28.1–50.5	40.3	29.0–52.7
(B) Women with moderate and severe dyskaryosis
			CIN3+				CIN2+
		>BMD	Risk	5 Year	Risk	10 Year	Risk	5 Year	Risk	10 Year
Baseline	Follow-up (6 months)a	At risk	(%)	95%CI	(%)	95%CI	(%)	95%CI	(%)	95%CI
All		132	45.1	36.4–54.1	47.0	37.8–56.4	51.2	42.6–59.7	55.3	46.4–63.9
	Cytology negativeb	21	5.0	0.9–23.6	15.0	5.1–36.7	5.0	0.9–23.6	15.0	5.1–36.7
	Cytology positiveb	98	53.9	43.5–64.0	53.9	42.9–64.5	60.7	50.7–69.9	64.0	53.7–73.2
HPV negative		31	7.3	2.0–23.6	11.2	3.4–31.0	16.9	7.4–34.2	24.2	11.6–43.6
	Cytology negativeb	10	0.0	0.0–29.9	11.1	1.8–45.6	0.0	0.0–29.9	11.1	1.8–45.6
	Cytology positiveb	18	13.5	3.7–39.1	13.5	3.0–44.3	29.4	13.3–53.1	36.5	16.9–61.9
	HPV negative	30	7.4	2.0–23.8	11.3	3.5–31.1	14.1	5.6–31.3	21.6	9.7–41.3
	HPV positive	1	0.0	-	0.0	-	100	20.7–100	100	20.7–100
	Double negative	10	0.0	0.0–29.9	11.1	1.8–45.6	0.0	0.0–29.9	11.1	1.8–45.6
	Cytology and/or HPV positive	21	11.2	3.0–33.7	11.2	2.6–37.5	25.0	11.2–46.9	30.8	14.2–54.5
HPV positivee		101	56.6	46.4–66.3	57.8	47.2–67.7	61.4	51.5–70.4	64.6	54.6–73.5
	Cytology negativeb	11	9.1	1.6–37.8	18.2	5.1–47.7	9.1	1.6–37.8	18.2	5.1–47.7
	Cytology positiveb,e	82	62.2	50.7–72.4	62.2	50.3–72.8	67.3	56.4–76.6	69.1	58.0–78.4
	HPV negative	14	0.0	0.0–24.3	0.0	0.0–25.9	7.7	1.4–33.3	7.7	1.3–34.6
	HPV positivee	81	65.1	53.7–75.0	66.8	55.1–76.7	68.8	57.9–77.9	72.8	62.0–81.5
	Double negative	5	0.0	0.0–43.4	0.0	0.0–43.4	0.0	0.0–43.4	0.0	0.0–43.4
	Cytology and/or HPV positivee	91	58.0	47.2–68.1	59.4	48.2–69.7	62.7	52.3–72.1	66.3	55.7–75.4
HPV16		50	63.7	49.6–75.8	63.7	49.1–76.2	65.3	51.3–77.1	65.3	50.8–77.4
NonHPV16		51	48.7	34.5–63.1	51.5	36.7–66.0	57.5	43.6–70.3	63.8	49.8–75.8

Abbreviations: CIN3+=cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 and cancer; CIN2+=cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2, 3 and cancer; 95% CI=95% confidence interval; HPV=human papillomavirus.

^aAll women with a follow-up of <6 months were excluded.

^bCytology divided into negative (normal) and positive (borderline or mild dyskaryosis and worse).

^cIncluding one adenocarcinoma in situ (AIS).

^dIncluding one squamous cell carcinoma (SCC).

^eIncluding one SCC, one adenocarcinoma, and one AIS.

Time to event is set equal to histological diagnosis of CIN3+ lesion.