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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2013 May 7.
Published in final edited form as: J Theor Biol. 2012 Jan 28;300:161–172. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2012.01.032

Table 3.

Parameter values and descriptions

Parameter Description Units Baseline Range Reference
N1 Population of age group 1 (0–17) People 73,000,000 1–100 million 36
N2 Population of age group 2 (18–64) People 191,000,000 1–250 million 36
N3 Population of age group 3 (65+) People 38,000,000 1–50 million 36
Runc1
Effective reproduction number (uncontrolled) for age group 1 (0–17) 1 1.3 & 1.35 & 1.4 0–2 35; 32; 40; 29
Runc2
effective reproduction number (uncontrolled) for age group 2 (18–64) 1 1.25 & 1.3 & 1.35 0–2 35; 32; 40; 29
Runc3
effective reproduction number (uncontrolled) for age group 3 (65+) 1 1.2 & 1.25 & 1.3 0–2 35; 32; 40; 29
Runcavg
Average effective reproduction number (uncontrolled) 1 1.25 & 1.3 & 1.35 0–2 35; 32; 40; 29
βkj Transmission rate from age group k to age group j 1 See Text 0–1 See Text
κkj Average number of contacts age group k has with age group j
PeopleDay
See Text 0–40 16
ξk Infectivity of age group k 1 See Text 0–1 See Text
ιj Susceptibility of age group j 1 1 0–1 8; 39
ω Incubation relative rate Day−1 0.25 0–1 35; 10
δ Non-hospitalized recovery relative rate Day−1 0.20 0–1 10
ν1 Hospitalized recovery rate relative for age group 1 (0–17) Day−1
15
0–1 27
ν2 Hospitalized recovery rate relative for age group 2 (18–64) Day−1
18
0–1 27
ν3 Hospitalized recovery rate relative for age group 3 (65+) Day−1
110
0–1 27
μ1 Death relative rate for age group 1 (0–17) Day−1 0.0000192 0–1 11; 32
μ2 Death relative rate for age group 2 (18–64) Day−1 0.0008224 0–1 11; 32
μ3 Death relative rate for age group 3 (65+) Day−1 0.00008102 0–1 11; 32
χ1 Hospitalization relative rate for age group 1 (0–17) Day−1 0.00435 0–1 11
χ2 Hospitalization relative rate for age group 2 (18–64) Day−1 0.00457 0–1 11
χ3 Hospitalization relative rate for age group 3 (65+) Day−1 0.0045 0–1 11
θ Reduced contacts due to hospitalization 1
13
0–1 See Text
α Reduced infectiousness due to incubation 1 0.5 0–1 See Text
ηi Decrease in infectivity because of mask 1 0.20 0–1 24; 1
ηs Decrease in susceptibility because of mask 1 0.50 0–1 24; 1
τ Number of infectious individuals at which masks are implemented People 30,200 30,200 See Text
ar Positive constant that determines the rate of movement between mask and non-mask classes 1 0 0–1 See Text
br Positive constant that determines the rate of movement between mask and non-mask classes 1 0.1 0–1 See Text
ϕr Movement rate between mask and non-mask classes, r = S, SM, E, EM, I, IM 1 See Text 0–1 See Text, 13
I1/N1 Initially infected fraction of population of age group 1 1
1,80073,000,000
0–1 15
I2/N2 Initially infected fraction of population of age group 2 1
2,000191,000,000
0–1 15
I3/N3 Initially infected fraction of population of age group 3 1
10038,000,000
0–1 15