A: ROC curves for the composite outcome in males (area under the ROC curve 0.80 [95% CI 0.78–0.82]) and females (0.82 [0.81–0.83]) with reference lines for cut point 40 in males (open circles) and females (black circles) and 35 in males (open squares) and females (black squares). ROC curve for the separate outcomes in males (area under the ROC curve 0.83 [0.80–0.86], 0.82 [0.80– 0.84], 0.75 [0.72–0.77], and 0.70 [0.67–0.73] for CVD mortality, CKD, total CVD, and type 2 diabetes, respectively) (B) and 0.85 [0.83 to 0.88], 0.81 [0.79–0.83], 0.77 [0.75–0.79] and 0.73 [0.71–0.75] for CVD mortality, CKD, total CVD, and type 2 diabetes, respectively, among females (C).