Table 3. Estimates of the growth rate and reproduction number associated with the 1918–19 influenza pandemic in Boyacá, Colombia*.
| Mortality outcome | Early growth phase period, 1918 | Daily growth rate, mean (95% CI) | R estimate, mean (95% CI) |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-d generation interval |
4-d generation interval |
||||||
| Exp dist. | Delta dist. | Exp dist. | Delta dist. | ||||
| Deaths from respiratory illness | Oct 13–Nov 15 | 0.121 (0.120–0.122) | 1.40 (1.39–1.40) | 1.44 (1.43–1.44) | 1.54 (1.54–1.54) | 1.62 (1.62–1.63) | |
| Excess deaths from respiratory illness | Oct 27–Nov 15 | 0.137 (0.136–0.139) | 1.45 (1.45–1.46) | 1.51 (1.51–1.52) | 1.62 (1.62–1.63) | 1.73 (1.72–1.74) | |
*Estimates are based on daily data. A generation interval of 3 or 4 d is assumed, with an exponential (exp) or a fixed (delta) distribution (dist.). R, reproduction number.