Table 3.
Comparison of out-of-sample predictions (external validation) between ARIMA and K-H models.
| MAPE | ARIMA | K-H |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17.54 | 17.21 |
|
| ||
| Stratified (in 4 week intervals) | ||
| Year 2007 | ||
| Weeks 1 to 4 | 17.07 | 14.27 |
| 5 to 8 | 28.60 | 25.62 |
| 9 to 12 | 33.41 | 30.63 |
| 13 to 16 | 32.52 | 33.09 |
| 17 to 20 | 21.83 | 20.53 |
| 21 to 24 | 20.64 | 19.76 |
| 25 to 28 | 12.86 | 13.22 |
| 29 to 32 | 11.53 | 14.40 |
| 33 to 36 | 8.54 | 10.26 |
| 37 to 40 | 5.07 | 6.50 |
| 41 to 44 | 18.49 | 17.42 |
| 45 to 48 | 8.54 | 10.35 |
| 49 to 52 | 15.70 | 12.44 |
| Year 2008 | ||
| Weeks 1 to 4 | 11.13 | 11.16 |
| 5 to 8 | 29.09 | 25.63 |
| 9 to 12 | 16.39 | 19.41 |
| 13 to 16 | 15.51 | 10.77 |
| 17 to 20 | 19.21 | 18.38 |
| 21 to 24 | 9.83 | 10.07 |