Table 3.
Model outputs recorded during Classical Swine Fever simulations in wild pigs in north-west Australia
| Output measure | Description | Best model prediction Median (95% probability intervals) |
|---|---|---|
| Outbreak description of highly virulent strain (without control or surveillance) | ||
| Proportion of introductions established (%) | The proportion of all simulations where a single point introduction leads to disease establishment (disease spreads to more than one herd) | 0.98 (0.95-1.00) |
| Days to disease fade out | The number of days in which infected herds are present | 759 (180-1424) |
| Infected herds | The total number of herds infected throughout the simulation | 1302 (293-2707) |
| Total herds extirpated | The number of herds where every member died due to infection with CSF | 563 (138-1146) |
| Incidence rate | The number of herds infected/day | 1.86(1.14-2.73) |
| Area infected (km2) | The area of a minimum convex hull established around every infected herd throughout the epidemic | 5979 (580-20537) |
| Area per day (km2/day) | The area of a minimum convex hull established around every infected herd throughout the epidemic/days of epidemic | 9 (3-17) |
| Cumulative incidence | Proportion of herds infected (%) = The total number of infected herds/total herds in contiguous population | 33 (14-70) |
| Low Virulence strain of CSF (without control or surveillance) | ||
| Proportion of introductions established (%) | As above | 0.97 (0.94-1.00) |
| Days to disease fade out | 976 (468-1442) | |
| Infected herds | 1829 (951-2825) | |
| Total herds extirpated | 184(96-288) | |
| Incidence rate | 1.84(1.24-2.63) | |
| Area infected (km2) | 11061 (2741-24393) | |
| Area per day (km2/day) | 11 (0-18) | |
| Cumulative incidence | 46 (23-84) | |
| Non-spatial model | ||
| Proportion of introductions established (%) | As above | 100% |
| Days to disease fade out | 87 (86-90) | |
| Infected herds | 5304 | |
| Total herds extirpated | 2234 (2205-2267) | |
| Incidence rate | 61 (58-62) | |
| Area infected (km2) | NA | |
| Area per day (km2/day) | NA | |
| Cumulative incidence | 100% | |
Best parameter estimates (most likely scenario), low virulence and non-spatial CSF scenarios shown.