Table 5.
The influence of changing parameters relative to baseline (multiplication factor, 1 = best estimate) on Classical Swine Fever outbreak size (000 km2) in wild pigs in north-west Australia
| Parameter | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multiplication factor | Probability of Transmission | Mortality probability | Density | Movers2 | Linear distance | Home range | Reduction in movement when sick |
| 0.25 | 1.522 | 12.097 | 0 | 6.578 | 0.023 | 9.793 | 7.236 |
| 0.5 | 3.362 | 12.393 | 0.004 | 8.393 | 0.196 | 3.176 | 8.406 |
| 0.75 | 5.170 | 8.470 | 1.360 | 10.502 | 0.126 | 8.667 | 7.324 |
| 1 (baseline) | 5.979 | 5.979 | 5.979 | 5.979 | 5.979 | 5.979 | 5.979 |
| 1.5 | 8.4991 | 5.960 | 20.46 | 10.242 | 25.180 | 16.832 | 9.645 |
| 2 | NA | 2.009 | 28.513 | 8.509 | 31.352 | 8.824 | 11.088 |
1Multiplication factor = 1.33 to ensure probability remained less than 1 (probability = 0.99).
2Proportion of herds able to disperse away from their starting home range.