Figure 2.

Compared output between a statistical and a process-driven model of H. marginatum in the Mediterranean basin. (A) The statistical model was trained with records of tick occurrence in the region and displays the probability to find permanent tick populations (in the range 0–1) as reported by Estrada-Peña and Venzal (2007). The model is based only on climate features found at the sites where the tick has been recorded. (B) The process-driven model uses the same set of climate explanatory variables (average monthly temperature and water deficit) and represents the same probability based on tick development and mortality rates over a period of 1 year (Estrada-Peña et al., 2011b). The process-driven model predicted a larger range northern to the Mediterranean area, sites which were regarded as unsuitable by the statistical model, and reported no suitability in large areas of the Sahara desert.