Table 7.
Predictive validity measures for CODEm results for several selected causes of death
| Cause | Model | RMSE (in-sample) | RMSE (test 2) | Trend test (in-sample) | Trend test (test 2) | Coverage (in-sample) | Coverage (test 2) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiovascular disease (male) | Ensemble | 0.123 | 0.290 | 0.764 | 0.699 | 0.993 | 0.853 |
| Best component model | 0.122 | 0.292 | 0.764 | 0.693 | 0.992 | 0.822 | |
| Cardiovascular disease (female) | Ensemble | 0.162 | 0.304 | 0.750 | 0.698 | 0.993 | 0.903 |
| Best component model | 0.162 | 0.305 | 0.751 | 0.707 | 0.993 | 0.877 | |
| Maternal mortality | Ensemble | 0.368 | 0.626 | 0.739 | 0.665 | 0.992 | 0.973 |
| Best component model | 0.369 | 0.636 | 0.737 | 0.663 | 0.992 | 0.969 | |
| Cervical cancer | Ensemble | 0.528 | 0.944 | 0.667 | 0.593 | 0.988 | 0.938 |
| Best component model | 0.489 | 0.951 | 0.678 | 0.587 | 0.982 | 0.912 | |
| Breast cancer (female) | Ensemble | 0.438 | 1.105 | 0.678 | 0.572 | 0.985 | 0.923 |
| Best component model | 0.428 | 1.129 | 0.675 | 0.570 | 0.981 | 0.875 | |
| Lung cancer (male) | Ensemble | 0.359 | 0.769 | 0.714 | 0.599 | 0.993 | 0.841 |
| Best component model | 0.330 | 0.759 | 0.738 | 0.617 | 0.993 | 0.800 | |
| Lung cancer (female) | Ensemble | 0.383 | 0.734 | 0.705 | 0.580 | 0.995 | 0.932 |
| Best component model | 0.371 | 0.756 | 0.738 | 0.597 | 0.994 | 0.897 | |