Figure 6.

Combined Influence of Imperfect Vaccination and Surveillance of Highly Connected Individuals on the Median Smallpox Outbreak Size. Each point was obtained from 1,000 simulations. Initial value: 100 index cases in a population of 100,000. Targeted vaccination: (a) a random sample of 10% of the population is asked to name 20 casual contacts each; (b) these contacts are sorted by frequency; (c) the most frequently named person is first scheduled for vaccination, less frequently named ones follow. The horizontal axis shows what percentage of the population is scheduled for vaccination. Because of vaccination eligibility and/or vaccination efficacy, a fraction of 90% (red curve) or 100% (blue curve) are successfully immunized. Scheduled individuals who are not immunized are permanently taken under surveillance.