Table 1.

Realized and potential reductions in lung cancer mortality from changes in smoking behavior among men and women aged 30-84 years.^*

Realized proportion of potential benefit from tobacco control, by year(s)	Women			Men			Overall
	Realized (NTC–ATC)	Potential (NTC–CTC)	Proportion realized	Realized (NTC–ATC)	Potential (NTC–CTC)	Proportion realized	Realized (NTC–ATC)	Potential (NTC–CTC)	Proportion realized
1975–2000
Erasmus MC	201 788	806 ,320	0.25	658 529	1 757 857	0.37	860  317	2  564  177	0.34
FHCRC	202 817	862 ,610	0.24	508 777	1 680 867	0.30	711  594	2  543  477	0.28
MGH-HMS	214 830	854 112	0.25	487 263	1 597 733	0.30	702  092	2  451  845	0.29
PIRE	333 976	1 064 443	0.31	454 517	1 329 972	0.34	788  493	2  394  415	0.33
Rice-MDA	285 079	878 359	0.32	603 236	1 645 651	0.37	888  316	2  524  010	0.35
Yale	221 173	834 293	0.27	603 122	1 712 035	0.35	824  294	2  546 328	0.32
Mean	243 277	883 356	0.28	552 574	1 620 686	0.34	795  851	2 504 042	0.32
1991–2000
Erasmus MC	143 273	462 528	0.31	384 882	834 310	0.46	528  155	1 296 837	0.41
FHCRC	152 574	521 040	0.29	318 279	842 602	0.38	470  853	1 363 642	0.35
MGH-HMS	153 549	511 509	0.30	310 210	846 300	0.37	463  759	1 357 809	0.34
PIRE	253 711	687 156	0.37	342 558	865 306	0.40	596  269	1 552 462	0.38
Rice-MDA	185 782	461 559	0.40	346 266	785 168	0.44	532  048	1 246 727	0.43
Yale	157 388	507 085	0.31	366 815	871 273	0.42	524  203	1 378 358	0.38
Mean	174 380	525 146	0.33	344 835	840 827	0.41	519  214	1 365 972	0.38
2000
Erasmus MC	20 277	55 337	0.37	48 897	94 979	0.51	69  173	150 316	0.46
FHCRC	22 271	63 373	0.35	39 076	92 434	0.42	61  347	155 807	0.39
MGH-HMS	21 532	60 774	0.35	38 375	92 187	0.42	59  907	152 961	0.39
PIRE	40 496	90 001	0.45	50 943	110 800	0.46	91  439	200 802	0.46
Rice-MDA	28 365	55 988	0.51	42 351	86 863	0.49	70  716	142 851	0.50
Yale	23 559	62 628	0.38	45 165	96 794	0.47	68  723	159 422	0.43
Mean	26 083	64 684	0.40	44 135	95 676	0.46	70  218	160 360	0.44

^*ATC = Actual Tobacco Control; CTC = Complete Tobacco Control; NTC = No Tobacco Control. The realized benefits of ATC are estimated by the difference (NTC–ATC); the potential total benefits are estimated by the difference (NTC–CTC); the proportion realized is given by the quotient of realized benefits and total potential benefits: (NTC–ATC)/(NTC–CTC). The six study groups that produced models are as follows: Erasmus MC = Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands; FHCRC = Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA; MGH-HMS = Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Cambridge, MA; PIRE = Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation, Calverton, MD; Rice-MDA = Rice University and M.D. Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX; and Yale = Yale University, New Haven, CT.