Table 3. Predictive values of CATs, CURB-65 and PMEWS scores for predicting severe outcomes in adults (≥16 years, n = 1040).
| Outcome | Score | ROC area (95%CI) | Sensitivity % (95%CI) | Specificity % (95%CI) | PPV % (95%CI) | NPV % (95%CI) |
| Level 2/3 admission | CURB-65≥2 | 0.62 (0.58, 0.66) | 42.4 (35.0, 50.0) | 81.2 (78.5, 83.8) | 31.6 (25.8, 38.0) | 87.3 (84.8, 89.5) |
| CURB-65≥3 | 0.56 (0.53, 0.58) | 14.1 (9.4, 20.1) | 97.2 (95.9, 98.2) | 51.0 (36.3, 65.6) | 84.7 (82.3, 86.9) | |
| PMEWS>1 | 0.52 (0.51, 0.53) | 97.7 (94.3, 99.4) | 6.3 (4.7, 8.1) | 17.6 (15.3, 20.1) | 93.1 (83.3, 98.1) | |
| PMEWS>2 | 0.54 (0.51, 0.56) | 90.4 (85.1, 94.3) | 17.4 (14.9, 20.1) | 18.3 (15.8, 21.1) | 89.8 (84.2, 94.0) | |
| PMEWS>3 | 0.54 (0.51, 0.56) | 90.4 (85.1, 94.3) | 17.4 (14.9, 20.1) | 18.3 (15.8, 21.1) | 89.8 (84.2, 94.0) | |
| PMEWS>4 | 0.59 (0.56, 0.62) | 84.7 (78.6, 89.7) | 32.6 (29.4, 35.8) | 20.5 (17.6, 23.6) | 91.2 (87.5, 94.1) | |
| PMEWS>5 | 0.62 (0.58, 0.65) | 76.3 (69.3, 82.3) | 47.0 (43.7, 50.4) | 22.8 (19.5, 26.4) | 90.6 (87.5, 93.2) | |
| PMEWS>7 | 0.65 (0.61, 0.69) | 55.4 (47.7, 62.8) | 74.9 (71.8, 77.7) | 31.1 (26.0, 36.5) | 89.1 (86.6, 91.3) | |
| PMEWS>9 | 0.57 (0.54, 0.61) | 24.9 (18.7, 31.9) | 89.7 (87.5, 91.6) | 33.1 (25.2, 41.8) | 85.3 (82.9, 87.6) | |
| PMEWS>11 | 0.52 (0.50, 0.54) | 5.1 (2.4, 9.4) | 98.7 (97.7, 99.4) | 45.0 (23.1, 68.5) | 83.5 (81.1, 85.8) | |
| CATs≥3 | 0.68 (0.64, 0.72) | 48.6 (41.0, 56.2) | 87.3 (84.8, 89.4) | 43.9 (36.8, 51.1) | 89.2 (86.9, 91.2) | |
| CATs≥4 | 0.60 (0.57, 0.63) | 22.0 (16.2, 28.9) | 98.4 (97.3, 99.1) | 73.6 (59.7, 84.7) | 86.0 (83.7, 88.1) | |
| CATs≥5 | 0.52 (0.51, 0.54) | 4.5 (2.0, 8.7) | 100.0 (99.6, 100.0) | 100.0 (63.1, 100.0) | 83.6 (81.2, 85.8) | |
| Death | CURB-65≥2 | 0.64 (0.57, 0.70) | 48.4 (35.5, 61.4) | 78.8 (76.1, 81.4) | 12.7 (8.7, 17.6) | 96.0 (94.4, 97.3) |
| CURB-65≥3 | 0.54 (0.50, 0.59) | 12.9 (5.7, 23.9) | 95.8 (94.4, 97.0) | 16.3 (7.3, 29.7) | 94.6 (92.9, 95.9) | |
| PMEWS>1 | 0.52 (0.50, 0.54) | 98.4 (91.3, 100.0) | 5.8 (4.4, 7.5) | 6.2 (4.8, 7.9) | 98.3 (90.8, 100.0) | |
| PMEWS>2 | 0.52 (0.47, 0.56) | 87.1 (76.1, 94.3) | 16.3 (14.0, 18.7) | 6.2 (4.7, 8.0) | 95.2 (90.8, 97.9) | |
| PMEWS>3 | 0.52 (0.47, 0.56) | 87.1 (76.1, 94.3) | 16.3 (14.0, 18.7) | 6.2 (4.7, 8.0) | 95.2 (90.8, 97.9) | |
| PMEWS>4 | 0.54 (0.48, 0.59) | 77.4 (65.0, 87.1) | 30.1 (27.2, 33.0) | 6.6 (4.9, 8.6) | 95.5 (92.5, 97.5) | |
| PMEWS>5 | 0.55 (0.49, 0.61) | 66.1 (53.0, 77.7) | 43.7 (40.5, 46.8) | 6.9 (5.0, 9.3) | 95.3 (92.9, 97.1) | |
| PMEWS>7 | 0.59 (0.52, 0.65) | 46.8 (34.0, 59.9) | 70.8 (67.8, 73.6) | 9.2 (6.3, 13.0) | 95.4 (93.7, 96.8) | |
| PMEWS>9 | 0.54 (0.49, 0.60) | 21.0 (11.7, 33.2) | 87.7 (85.5, 89.7) | 9.8 (5.3, 16.1) | 94.6 (92.9, 96.0) | |
| PMEWS>11 | 0.51 (0.48, 0.53) | 3.2 (0.4, 11.2) | 98.2 (97.1, 98.9) | 10.0 (1.2, 31.7) | 94.1 (92.5, 95.5) | |
| CATs≥3 | 0.65 (0.58, 0.71) | 46.8 (34.0, 59.9) | 82.9 (80.4, 85.2) | 14.8 (10.1, 20.6) | 96.1 (94.6, 97.3) | |
| CATs≥4 | 0.58 (0.53, 0.63) | 19.4 (10.4, 31.4) | 95.8 (94.4, 97.0) | 22.6 (12.3, 36.2) | 94.9 (93.4, 96.2) | |
| CATs≥5 | 0.51 (0.49, 0.54) | 3.2 (0.4, 11.2) | 99.4 (98.7, 99.8) | 25.0 (3.2, 65.1) | 94.2 (92.6, 95.5) | |
| Combined severe * | CURB-65≥2 | 0.63 (0.59, 0.66) | 43.5 (36.3, 50.8) | 81.9 (79.1, 84.4) | 35.0 (29.0, 41.5) | 86.6 (84.0, 88.8) |
| CURB-65≥3 | 0.56 (0.53, 0.58) | 14.1 (9.5, 19.9) | 97.4 (96.1, 98.4) | 55.1 (40.2, 69.3) | 83.5 (81.0, 85.7) | |
| PMEWS>1 | 0.52 (0.51, 0.53) | 97.9 (94.7, 99.4) | 6.4 (4.8, 8.2) | 19.0 (16.6, 21.6) | 93.1 (83.3, 98.1) | |
| PMEWS>2 | 0.53 (0.51, 0.56) | 89.5 (84.3, 93.5) | 17.3 (14.8, 20.0) | 19.6 (17.0, 22.4) | 88.0 (82.1, 92.5) | |
| PMEWS>3 | 0.53 (0.51, 0.56) | 89.5 (84.3, 93.5) | 17.3 (14.8, 20.0) | 19.6 (17.0, 22.4) | 88.0 (82.1, 92.5) | |
| PMEWS>4 | 0.58 (0.55, 0.61) | 83.2 (77.2, 88.2) | 32.5 (29.4, 35.8) | 21.7 (18.8, 24.9) | 89.6 (85.7, 92.8) | |
| PMEWS>5 | 0.61 (0.57, 0.65) | 74.9 (68.1, 80.9) | 47.1 (43.7, 50.5) | 24.2 (20.8, 27.8) | 89.3 (86.0, 92.0) | |
| PMEWS>7 | 0.64 (0.60, 0.68) | 53.4 (46.1, 60.6) | 74.9 (71.9, 77.8) | 32.4 (27.2, 37.9) | 87.7 (85.1, 90.0) | |
| PMEWS>9 | 0.57 (0.53, 0.60) | 23.6 (17.7, 30.2) | 89.6 (87.4, 91.6) | 33.8 (25.9, 42.5) | 83.9 (81.3, 86.2) | |
| PMEWS>11 | 0.52 (0.50, 0.54) | 5.2 (2.5, 9.4) | 98.8 (97.8, 99.4) | 50.0 (27.2, 72.8) | 82.3 (79.8, 84.6) | |
| CATs≥3 | 0.68 (0.64, 0.72) | 48.2 (40.9, 55.5) | 87.8 (85.4, 89.9) | 46.9 (39.8, 54.2) | 88.3 (85.9, 90.4) | |
| CATs≥4 | 0.60 (0.57, 0.63) | 21.5 (15.9, 28.0) | 98.6 (97.5, 99.3) | 77.4 (63.8, 87.7) | 84.8 (82.4, 87.0) | |
| CATs≥5 | 0.52 (0.51, 0.54) | 4.2 (1.8, 8.1) | 100.0 (99.6, 100.0) | 100.0 (63.1, 100.0) | 82.3 (79.8, 84.6) |
*
Combined measure of severe outcomes (Level 2/3 admission or death).