Table. Influence of ecologic deforestation and social demographic risk factors on malaria incidence in health districts, Mâncio Lima County, Brazil, 1997–2006*.
| Variable | 2006 health district summary |
Univariate analysis† |
Multivariate analysis† |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | SD | RR | 95% CI | AIC | RR | 95% CI | |||
| Ecologic | |||||||||
| Deforested in 1997, % | 40.2 | 32.5 | 0.84 | 0.64–1.09 | 671.1 | ||||
| Deforested 1997–2002, % | 3.2 | 4.3 | 1.31 | 1.11–1.56 | 664.0 | ||||
| Deforested 1997–2001, % | 2.7 | 4.2 | 1.32 | 1.11–1.57 | 663.8 | ||||
| Deforested 1997–2000, % | 2.3 | 4.3 | 1.33 | 1.12–1.58 | 663.6 | 1.48 | 1.26–1.75 | ||
| Deforested 2001–2006, % |
3.4 |
3.6 |
|
1.03 |
0.85–1.23 |
672.7 |
|
|
|
| Social demographic | |||||||||
| Active surveillance, % | 64.9 | 19.3 | 1.27 | 0.97–1.65 | 669.6 | ||||
| Access to care <48 h, % | 70.6 | 13.5 | 1.18 | 0.87–1.59 | 671.4 | 0.92 | 0.72–1.17 | ||
| Case-patients <10 y, % | 27.6 | 9.3 | 1.18 | 0.94–1.46 | 669.9 | ||||
| Case-patients, male, % | 55.9 | 7.8 | 1.07 | 0.88–1.31 | 672.1 | ||||
| Falciparum cases, % |
41.3 |
10.1 |
|
1.11 |
0.87–1.41 |
671.0 |
|
|
|
| Spatial | |||||||||
| Area, km2 | 23.9 | 33 | 1.20 | 0.99–1.46 | 669.1 | 1.26 | 1.06–1.49 | ||
| Interaction‡ | 1.20 | 1.05–1.39 | |||||||
*Summary statistics of variables, relative risks (RR), and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the univariate and multivariate negative binomial generalized additive models with integrated smoothness estimation of spatial correlation. The SD is used as the unit of analysis for all risk factors and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) values for the univariate models are shown. The AIC for the multivariate model is 655.9. †Models adjusted for spatial trend ‡Area × access to care.