Figure 4. Accounting for bears when setting escapement goals in Bristol Bay and Rivers Inlet.

(A) Bear density as a function of sockeye salmon escapement relative to the expected bear density at the maximum observed escapement (solid blue line). Vertical black dashed lines indicate E_MSY. The lower and upper escapement goals are highlighted by green dotted lines. (B) Increasing escapements from the lower to upper goals can substantially increase bear density (lower dark-red bar). Further increases in escapement to E_MSY continue to increase bear density (upper light-red bar), but the benefit is somewhat less due to the saturating relationship between escapement and percent salmon in diet. Importantly, there is no expected tradeoff to increasing escapement; yields are expected to be higher at upper escapement goals (lower dark-yellow bar) and increase further until E_MSY (upper light-yellow bar). Although E_MSY and the response in fisheries yields are uncertain, especially for the Egegik stock, bear success can still be assessed at the tangible lower and upper escapement goals and beyond.