Table 5.
Multivariate Five-Stage Markov Model for AMD Progression
| Variable | Worse Eye Transition |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 → 2 |
2 → 3 |
3 → 4 |
3 → 5 |
|||||||
| HR | P* | HR | P* | HR | P* | HR | P* | |||
| Sex | ||||||||||
| Female | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||||||
| Male | 1.01 | 0.93 | 1.04 | 0.72 | 1.23 | 0.12 | 0.87 | 0.28 | ||
| Age, y | ||||||||||
| <65 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||||||
| 65–74 | 1.10 | 0.35 | 1.17 | 0.22 | 1.17 | 0.35 | 1.40 | 0.05 | ||
| 75+ | 1.88 | 3.2×10−3 | 1.74 | 7.7×10−3 | 1.37 | 0.14 | 2.31 | 3.8×10−5 | ||
| BMI | ||||||||||
| <25 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||||||
| 25–29 | 0.91 | 0.37 | 1.10 | 0.45 | 1.33 | 0.06 | 1.00 | 0.97 | ||
| 30+ | 0.84 | 0.17 | 1.00 | 0.98 | 1.68 | 1.8×10−3 | 1.22 | 0.21 | ||
| Smoking | ||||||||||
| Never | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||||||
| Past | 0.90 | 0.29 | 1.09 | 0.47 | 1.06 | 0.65 | 1.29 | 0.05 | ||
| Current | 0.89 | 0.60 | 0.85 | 0.64 | 2.18 | 1.6×10−3 | 1.96 | 8.3×10−3 | ||
| Education | ||||||||||
| ≤High school | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||||||
| >High school | 0.93 | 0.53 | 0.81 | 0.07 | 0.81 | 0.11 | 0.93 | 0.59 | ||
| Antioxidants | ||||||||||
| No | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||||||
| Yes | 1.13 | 0.20 | 1.12 | 0.28 | 0.93 | 0.56 | 0.93 | 0.53 | ||
| Fellow eye status | ||||||||||
| None or small drusen | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||||||
| Intermediate drusen | — | — | 1.98 | 1.8×10−9 | 2.13 | 0.03 | 2.14 | 5.0×10−3 | ||
| Large drusen | — | — | — | — | 9.97 | 2.9×10−13 | 4.52 | 3.0×10−9 | ||
| Genetic risk factors: gene (effective allele/genotype) | ||||||||||
| rs1061170 | CFH | C | 1.02 | 0.8 | 1.27 | 1.60×10−3 | 1.33 | 1.10×10−3 | 1.37 | 2.20×10−4 |
| rs10490924 | ARMS2/HTRA1 | T | 1.14 | 0.12 | 1.36 | 2.90×10−4 | 1.24 | 0.02 | 1.27 | 5.30×10−3 |
| rs9332739 | C2 | C† | 0.82 | 0.23 | 0.68 | 0.07 | 0.82 | 0.52 | 0.6 | 0.14 |
| rs641153 | CFB | T† | 0.92 | 0.52 | 0.78 | 0.11 | 0.9 | 0.63 | 0.57 | 0.02 |
| rs2230199 | C3 | G | 1.16 | 0.07 | 1.22 | 0.03 | 1.26 | 0.01 | 1.25 | 0.02 |
| rs10033900 | CFI | T | 1.09 | 0.18 | 1.06 | 0.47 | 1.19 | 0.05 | 0.87 | 0.1 |
| rs10468017 | LIPC | TT† | 0.72 | 0.07 | 0.77 | 0.23 | 0.78 | 0.34 | 0.57 | 0.04 |
| rs9621532 | TIMP3 | C† | 0.94 | 0.71 | 1.11 | 0.56 | 0.84 | 0.45 | 0.79 | 0.3 |
| rs3764261 | CETP | A | 1.09 | 0.27 | 1.06 | 0.44 | 0.97 | 0.76 | 1.17 | 0.06 |
| rs1883025 | ABCA1 | T | 0.82 | 9.70×10−3 | 0.77 | 5.20×10−3 | 0.96 | 0.69 | 0.97 | 0.79 |
| rs13095226 | COL8A1 | C† | 1.13 | 0.31 | 0.68 | 0.02 | 1.23 | 0.16 | 1.2 | 0.21 |
| APOE† | APOE | E4† | 0.99 | 0.92 | 0.93 | 0.59 | 0.89 | 0.46 | 0.97 | 0.85 |
*
Adjusted for age, sex, education (≤high school vs. >high school), smoking (never, past, current), BMI (<25, 25–29.9, 30+), antioxidant treatment, and the number of effective alleles for each genetic locus in this table. P value is bold for variables significantly (P ≤ 0.05) associated with a specific transition.
†
Genotypes are combined at the marked SNPs, which are coded 0 for subjects without the effective allele/genotype and 1 for subjects with the effective allele/genotype. APOE haplotypes were defined by alleles in rs7412 and rs429358. SNPs not marked are coded by the number of effective alleles (0, 1, and 2).