Table 1.
Base Case Probabilities & Costs
| Variable | Probability (range) | Sources |
|---|---|---|
| Rebleeding following initial hemostasis | 16% (5-30%) | 3, 4, 6, 8, 9, 11, 24-26 |
| Re-application of T-EGD (no bleeding) | 35% (20-50%) | |
| Rebleeding after 2nd T-EGD (no bleeding) | 10% (0-50%) | 4, 11 |
| Re-application of T-EGD (bleeding) | 40% (10-70%) | 27 |
| Continued bleeding after 2nd T-EGD (bleeding) | 15% (0-50%) | Expert opinion |
| Major complication after T-EGD | 1% (0-4%) | 27 |
| Major complication after D-EGD | 0.5% (0-2%) | 28 |
| Survive surgery without complications | 85% (60-100%) | Expert opinion |
| Survive surgery with complications | 10% (0-20%) | Expert opinion |
| Peri-operative mortality | 5% (0-20%) | Expert opinion |
| Cost (range) | ||
| Diagnostic (D-) EGD | $732 ($300 - $1500) | Medicine reimbursed |
| Therapeutic (T-) EGD | $868 ($400 - $1,500) | Medicine reimbursed |
| Hospital (no rebleeding) | $3,780 ($2,000 - $7,000) | 29 |
| Hospital (rebleeding) | $6,080 ($4,000 - $10,000) | 29 |
| Surgery (perf/bleed) | $3,850 ($2,000 - $8,000) | Medicine reimbursed |
| Surgical complication | $11,600 (47000-$20,000) | Medicine reimbursed |
| Death | $250,000 ($0 - $500,000) | Expert opinion |