Table 1.
Projected Demand for FTE Physicians Using Different Scenarios as Calculated by The Lewin Group
| Impact | + | + | + | + | − | = |
| Baseline Scenario | Increasing Per Capita Use of Ambulatory Services | Increasing Provider Productivity | Combined Scenario | |||
| Year | Starting Year Demand | Changing Demographics | Health Care Reform | Net Total Demand | ||
| 2008 | 3,410 | - | - | - | - | 3,410 |
| 2009 | 40 | - | 10 | (20) | 3,440 | |
| 2010 | 80 | - | 20 | (30) | 3,480 | |
| 2011 | 130 | - | 40 | (50) | 3,530 | |
| 2012 | 180 | - | 50 | (70) | 3,570 | |
| 2013 | 240 | - | 60 | (90) | 3,620 | |
| 2014 | 290 | 20 | 80 | (110) | 3,690 | |
| 2015 | 340 | 20 | 100 | (130) | 3,740 | |
| 2016 | 390 | 20 | 110 | (150) | 3,780 | |
| 2017 | 440 | 30 | 130 | (170) | 3,840 | |
| 2018 | 500 | 20 | 150 | (190) | 3,890 | |
| 2019 | 550 | 20 | 170 | (210) | 3,940 | |
| 2020 | 600 | 30 | 190 | (230) | 4,000 | |