Table 3.

Percent of predictions within one-half point of actual score in routine and cross-validated analyses.

Heuristic assumptions	Precision		Precision – cross-validated
	Metric	Value and probability	Metric	Value and probability
No heuristic	Mx-S	83.0 (80.5)†	Mx-S	68.5 (65.6)†
	No alternates		No alternates
Free heuristic – impervious	Mx-S	84.0 (81.6)†	Mx-S	70.6 (67.6)*
	No alternates		Pr-S	68.3†
Free heuristic – vulnerable	Mx-S	84.7 (82.3)*	Mx-S	70.0 (66.9)†
	No alternates		Pr-C	69.0†
			Pr-S	68.3†
Obligatory heuristic – impervious	Pr-I, Sum-I	10.7 (8.6)	Mx-S	10.2 (8.2)
	More than half the other metrics fall within 95% CI		All other metrics fall within 95% CI
Obligatory heuristic – vulnerable	Mx-I	41.6 (38.4)	Pr-I	41.4 (38.1)
	Pr-I	40.9	Mx-C	39.6
	Mx-S	40.9	Mx-S	38.5
	Sum-I	40.2	Sum-I	38.5

Numbers in parentheses represent the lower limits of the 95% confidence interval (CI). For each heuristic assumption, the complexity metric that provides the best fit is listed (unshaded) and other metrics that fell within the 95% CI of this metric are listed below (shaded).

*Indicates the best fit across all heuristic assumptions.

^†Indicates that a measurement falls within the 95% CI of the highest score within a column.