Table 1.
Mfull | M1 | M2 | M3 | MMAM | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
final epidemic sizea | 79.0 (1, 1011) | 100 (1, 1083) | 611 (1, 1796) | 86.5 (1, 1319) | 787 (1, 2115) |
infections > 1 (%)b | 39.3 | 41.0 | 52.4 | 43.8 | 63.3 |
mean after four weeksc | 1.23 | 1.24 | 1.26 | 1.26 | 1.22 |
variance after four weeksd | 2.74 | 2.99 | 1.82 | 2.07 | 1.13 |
aGiven by the mean and 2.5% and 97.5% percentiles (in brackets) as generated by simulations (1000 replicates) with each model.
bPercentages of simulations where at least one secondary infection was generated.
c,dThe mean number of infected herds four weeks after initial infection. See text for details of the models.