Table 2.
Two Year Incident Activity of Daily Living Dependence Regressed on Baseline Benchmark Model and Simple Models, Development Cohort (n=6,233)
| Variable | Benchmark Model1 |
Backwards Elimination Simple Model2 |
Simple Model Excluding Disease |
|---|---|---|---|
| OR (95% CI) | OR (95% CI) | OR (95% CI) | |
| Age > 80 years | 2.93 (2.39-3.58) | ||
| Diabetes | 1.28 (1.02-1.61) | ||
| Difficulty walking several blocks | 2.60 (2.09-3.24) | ||
| Difficulty bathing or dressing | 2.00 (1.53-2.62) | ||
| Need help with personal finances | 3.69 (2.56-5.31) | ||
| Difficulty lifting 10 pounds Unable to name vice president |
1.32 (1.05-1.64) 1.22 (0.91-1.63) |
||
| Fall in past year | 1.31 (1.07-1.61) | ||
| Low body mass index3 | 1.89 (1.42-2.51) | ||
| Age category: | |||
| 65-74 | reference group | reference group | |
| 75-79 | 1.73 (1.31-2.29) | 1.76 (1.34-2.32) | |
| 80-84 | 3.04 (2.31-4.01) | 2.98 (2.27-3.91) | |
| 85-89 | 5.25 (3.94-6.99) | 5.15 (3.89-6.82) | |
| 90 or over | 16.23 (11.43-23.06) | 14.56 (10.34-20.51) | |
| Hospitalizations: | |||
| 0 | reference group | reference group | |
| 1 or 2 | 1.48 (1.20-1.84) | 1.75 (1.42-2.15) | |
| 3 or more | 2.41 (1.62-3.58) | 3.58 (2.46-5.22) | |
| Diabetes | 1.46 (1.17-1.84) | ||
| Lung disease | 2.14 (1.66-2.77) | ||
| Congestive heart failure | 1.52 (1.06-2.19) | ||
| Stroke | 1.92 (1.42-2.58) | ||
| Arthritis | 1.26 (1.01-1.57) | ||
| c-statistic | 0.79 | 0.76 | 0.73 |
1
From Covinsky et al, 2006.
2
Initial variables included in the backwards elimination analyses for the simple model development were age, gender, number of hospitalizations, nights in hospital, hypertension, diabetes, cancer, lung disease, congestive heart failure, other heart disease, stroke, arthritis.
3
A respondent is considered to have low BMI if his/her BMI is one standard deviation below the mean for their gender (< 20 for women, < 22 for men).