Table 2.
Mark-recapture model selection. Results of four separate MARK (White and Burnham 1995) analyses for each combination of sex and year. For each analysis, rows represent particular candidate models, which each estimate survival (Φ) and recapture (p) probability. Each candidate model variously estimates regime (reg) or recapture-episode (ti) specific parameter values as well as interactions between these effects. Thus, models vary in the number of parameters they estimate (K). The most likely candidate model has the lowest Akiake's Information Criteria score (AICc). ΔAIC is the difference between the AIC for a given model and that for the best model. AIC weights (w) give relative likelihoods of the different models
| Model | AICc | ΔAIC | w | Likelihood | K | Deviance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 Females | ||||||
| {Φ(reg) p(.)} | 426.39 | 0.00 | 0.333 | 1.000 | 3 | 89.17 |
| {Φ(reg*ti) p(.)} | 426.56 | 0.18 | 0.304 | 0.915 | 15 | 62.97 |
| {Φ(reg*ti) p(reg)} | 427.65 | 1.27 | 0.177 | 0.531 | 16 | 61.71 |
| {Φ(reg) p(reg)} | 428.37 | 1.98 | 0.123 | 0.371 | 4 | 89.08 |
| {Φ(reg) p(ti)} | 430.79 | 4.40 | 0.037 | 0.111 | 9 | 80.78 |
| {Φ(reg*ti) p(ti)} | 431.62 | 5.23 | 0.024 | 0.073 | 20 | 56.03 |
| {Φ(ti) p(.)} | 437.24 | 10.85 | 0.001 | 0.004 | 8 | 89.42 |
| {Φ(ti) p(reg)} | 439.42 | 13.04 | 0.000 | 0.002 | 9 | 89.42 |
| {Φ(ti) p(ti)} | 441.88 | 15.50 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 13 | 82.91 |
| {Φ(reg*ti) p(reg*ti)} | 445.68 | 19.29 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 27 | 52.18 |
| 2005 Males | ||||||
| {Φ(reg) p(ti)} | 246.31 | 0.00 | 0.508 | 1.000 | 9 | 32.61 |
| {Φ(reg) p(.)} | 248.36 | 2.05 | 0.182 | 0.358 | 3 | 47.81 |
| {Φ(reg) p(reg)} | 249.17 | 2.86 | 0.122 | 0.239 | 4 | 46.51 |
| {Φ(reg*ti) p(ti)} | 249.39 | 3.09 | 0.109 | 0.214 | 16 | 18.83 |
| {Φ(reg*ti) p(reg*ti)} | 251.49 | 5.19 | 0.038 | 0.075 | 17 | 18.37 |
| {Φ(reg*ti) p(.)} | 252.60 | 6.29 | 0.022 | 0.043 | 11 | 34.26 |
| {Φ(reg*ti) p(reg)} | 252.82 | 6.51 | 0.020 | 0.039 | 12 | 32.11 |
| {Φ(ti) p(reg)} | 269.98 | 23.67 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 9 | 56.28 |
| {Φ(ti) p(ti)} | 274.90 | 28.59 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 13 | 51.78 |
| {Φ(ti) p(.)} | 278.64 | 32.34 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 8 | 67.22 |
| 2006 Females | ||||||
| {Φ(reg) p(ti)} | 578.93 | 0.00 | 0.843 | 1.000 | 10 | 107.39 |
| {Φ(reg*ti) p(reg)} | 583.63 | 4.70 | 0.081 | 0.096 | 16 | 98.93 |
| {Φ(reg*ti) p(.)} | 584.97 | 6.04 | 0.041 | 0.049 | 15 | 102.50 |
| {Φ(reg*ti) p(ti)} | 585.44 | 6.51 | 0.032 | 0.039 | 21 | 89.35 |
| {Φ(reg*ti) p(reg*ti)} | 590.62 | 11.69 | 0.002 | 0.003 | 25 | 85.11 |
| {Φ(ti) p(reg)} | 611.66 | 32.73 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 10 | 140.11 |
| {Φ(reg) p(.)} | 618.00 | 39.07 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3 | 161.13 |
| {Φ(ti) p(.)} | 618.10 | 39.17 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 9 | 148.69 |
| {Φ(reg) p(reg)} | 618.57 | 39.63 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4 | 159.64 |
| {Φ(ti) p(ti)} | 619.85 | 40.92 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 15 | 137.38 |
| 2006 Males | ||||||
| {Φ(reg) p(.)} | 401.14 | 0.00 | 0.293 | 1.000 | 3 | 58.71 |
| {Φ(reg) p(ti)} | 401.20 | 0.07 | 0.283 | 0.966 | 7 | 50.33 |
| {Φ(reg) p(reg)} | 402.32 | 1.19 | 0.162 | 0.552 | 4 | 57.82 |
| {Φ(reg*ti) p(reg)} | 402.42 | 1.29 | 0.154 | 0.525 | 12 | 40.49 |
| {Φ(reg*ti) p(.)} | 403.63 | 2.50 | 0.084 | 0.287 | 11 | 43.96 |
| {Φ(reg*ti) p(ti)} | 406.60 | 5.46 | 0.019 | 0.065 | 14 | 40.08 |
| {Φ(reg*ti) p(reg*ti)} | 411.25 | 10.11 | 0.002 | 0.006 | 18 | 35.27 |
| {Φ(ti) p(reg)} | 411.29 | 10.16 | 0.002 | 0.006 | 7 | 60.42 |
| {Φ(ti) p(.)} | 413.26 | 12.12 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 6 | 64.53 |
| {Φ(ti) p(ti)} | 417.25 | 16.11 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 9 | 62.02 |