Table 3.
Varying ratios of period of training to period of evaluation of health forecasting models
| Author | Ratio of period of training: evaluation | Analytical techniques used in forecasting and study purpose |
|---|---|---|
| Hoot et al 200817 | 1:1 | ARIMA; to predict ED operation conditions within 8 hours |
| McCarthy 200818 | 1:1 | Poisson regression; to predict hourly ED presentations |
| Boyle 201119 | 1:1/2:1/3:1/4:1 | ARIMA, regression, ESM; to predict ED presentation and admission |
| Hoot et al 200751 | 2:1 | Logistic regression and ANN; to predict ED overcrowding |
| Wargon et al 201083 | 3:1 | Regression model; to predict daily ED presentation |
| Reis and Mandl, 200384 | 4:1/5:1 | ARIMA models; to predict daily pediatric ED presentation |
| Schweigler et al 200985 | 7:1/14:1 | SARIMA, hourly historical averages; to predict hourly ED bed occupancy |
| Jones et al 200822 | 8:1 | SARIMA, regression, ESM, and ANN; to predict daily presentation |
| Batal et al 200175 | 9:1 | Stepwise linear regression; to predict daily presentation |
| Champion et al 200720 | 12:1 | ARIMA, ESM; to predict aggregate monthly ED presentations |
Abbreviations: ANN, Artificial Neural Networks; ARIMA, autoregressive-integrated moving average; SARIMA, seasonal autoregressive-integrated moving average; ESM, exponential smoothing; ED, emergency department.