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. 2012 May;18(5):758–766. doi: 10.3201/eid1805.110356

Table 1. Reproduction numbers obtained by fitting a simple epidemic model to numbers of influenza-like illness cases attributable to pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus, People’s Republic of China, September–October 2009*.

Interval Mean (95% credible interval)
School term 1 (Sep 6–Oct 1) 1.25 (1.22–1.28)
Holidays (Oct 1–8)† 0.79 (0.69–0.90)
School term 2 (Oct 9–25) 1.23 (1.15–1.33)

*Fitted on data for the calendar weeks before and after the National Day Holiday.
†Period of National Day Holiday. Details can be found in Technical Appendix Table 1.