Table 2.
Mortality (a) unrelated to smoking, and (b) preventable by 1960s standards of medical care: incidence rate ratio (IRR) and incidence rate difference (IRD) by county income quintile, and population attributable fraction (PAF), for total, white, and of color populations: United States, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2006.
| (a) Mortality unrelated to smoking | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County income |
Year | ||||||||||||
| Population | quintile | 1960 | 1970 | 1980 | 1990 | 2000 | 2006 | ||||||
| IRR | (95% CI) | IRR | (95% CI) | IRR | (95% CI) | IRR | (95% CI) | IRR | (95% CI) | IRR | (95% CI) | ||
| Total | 5 (highest) | 1.00 | . . | 1.00 | . . | 1.00 | . . | 1.00 | . . | 1.00 | . . | 1.00 | . . |
| 4 | 1.14 | (1.13, 1.15) | 1.10 | (1.09, 1.11) | 1.06 | (1.05, 1.07) | 1.06 | (1.06, 1.07) | 1.11 | (1.10, 1.12) | 1.09 | (1.08, 1.10) | |
| 3 | 1.18 | (1.17, 1.19) | 1.12 | (1.11, 1.13) | 1.06 | (1.05, 1.07) | 1.14 | (1.13, 1.15) | 1.13 | (1.13, 1.14) | 1.14 | (1.13, 1.15) | |
| 2 | 1.21 | (1.20, 1.22) | 1.19 | (1.18, 1.20) | 1.13 | (1.12, 1.14) | 1.12 | (1.11, 1.13) | 1.13 | (1.12, 1.14) | 1.17 | (1.16, 1.17) | |
| 1 (lowest) | 1.06 | (1.05, 1.07) | 1.19 | (1.18, 1.20) | 1.14 | (1.13, 1.15) | 1.16 | (1.15, 1.17) | 1.23 | (1.22, 1.24) | 1.19 | (1.18, 1.20) | |
| White | 5 (highest) | 1.00 | . . | 1.00 | . . | 1.00 | . . | 1.00 | . . | 1.00 | . . | 1.00 | . . |
| 4 | 1.14 | (1.13, 1.16) | 1.07 | (1.06, 1.08) | 1.03 | (1.02, 1.04) | 1.03 | (1.03, 1.04) | 1.08 | (1.07, 1.09) | 1.07 | (1.06, 1.07) | |
| 3 | 1.16 | (1.15, 1.17) | 1.09 | (1.08, 1.10) | 1.04 | (1.03, 1.05) | 1.09 | (1.08, 1.10) | 1.10 | (1.09, 1.10) | 1.10 | (1.09, 1.11) | |
| 2 | 1.17 | (1.16, 1.18) | 1.13 | (1.12, 1.14) | 1.07 | (1.06, 1.07) | 1.07 | (1.06, 1.08) | 1.11 | (1.10, 1.12) | 1.14 | (1.13, 1.15) | |
| 1 (lowest) | 1.00 | (0.99, 1.01) | 1.13 | (1.12, 1.14) | 1.08 | (1.07, 1.08) | 1.11 | (1.10, 1.12) | 1.18 | (1.17, 1.19) | 1.16 | (1.15, 1.16) | |
| Of color | 5 (highest) | 1.00 | . . | 1.00 | . . | 1.00 | . . | 1.00 | . . | 1.00 | . . | 1.00 | . . |
| 4 | 1.13 | (1.09, 1.17) | 1.12 | (1.09, 1.15) | 1.17 | (1.14, 1.20) | 1.18 | (1.16, 1.21) | 1.34 | (1.31, 1.36) | 1.27 | (1.25, 1.29) | |
| 3 | 1.22 | (1.19, 1.26) | 1.31 | (1.27, 1.35) | 1.26 | (1.23, 1.29) | 1.42 | (1.39, 1.45) | 1.36 | (1.34, 1.38) | 1.39 | (1.36, 1.41) | |
| 2 | 1.39 | (1.35, 1.43) | 1.36 | (1.33, 1.40) | 1.48 | (1.45, 1.52) | 1.43 | (1.40, 1.46) | 1.30 | (1.28, 1.32) | 1.39 | (1.37, 1.42) | |
| 1 (lowest) | 1.18 | (1.14, 1.21) | 1.29 | (1.26, 1.33) | 1.38 | (1.35, 1.41) | 1.43 | (1.40, 1.46) | 1.53 | (1.50, 1.55) | 1.38 | (1.36, 1.40) | |
| IRD | (95% CI) | IRD | (95% CI) | IRD | (95% CI) | IRD | (95% CI) | IRD | (95% CI) | IRD | (95% CI) | ||
| Total | 5 (highest) | . | . . | . | . . | . | . . | . | . . | . | . . | . | . . |
| 4 | 55.4 | (51.6, 59.1) | 36.0 | (32.7, 39.3) | 20.3 | (17.5, 23.2) | 22.7 | (20.1, 25.3) | 41.9 | (39.4, 44.3) | 34.3 | (32.0, 36.6) | |
| 3 | 71.3 | (67.6, 75.0) | 44.8 | (41.5, 48.1) | 20.8 | (18.0, 23.6) | 51.8 | (49.1, 54.4) | 50.3 | (47.9, 52.7) | 52.5 | (50.2, 54.8) | |
| 2 | 80.3 | (76.6, 84.0) | 69.8 | (66.4, 73.1) | 46.1 | (43.2, 48.9) | 42.8 | (40.2, 45.4) | 48.8 | (46.4, 51.1) | 63.4 | (61.1, 65.7) | |
| 1 (lowest) | 24.7 | (21.1, 28.3) | 69.8 | (66.5, 73.1) | 48.7 | (45.9, 51.5) | 58.5 | (55.9, 61.1) | 87.0 | (84.6, 89.4) | 71.5 | (69.2, 73.8) | |
| White | 5 (highest) | . | . . | . | . . | . | . . | . | . . | . | . . | . | . . |
| 4 | 54.5 | (50.6, 58.3) | 23.8 | (20.4, 27.2) | 9.3 | (6.4, 12.3) | 12.4 | (9.6, 15.1) | 29.5 | (26.9, 32.0) | 25.2 | (22.8, 27.7) | |
| 3 | 61.9 | (58.1, 65.7) | 31.2 | (27.8, 34.6) | 14.5 | (11.6, 17.4) | 31.2 | (28.4, 33.9) | 36.0 | (33.5, 38.6) | 37.9 | (35.5, 40.4) | |
| 2 | 64.2 | (60.4, 68.0) | 47.2 | (43.8, 50.6) | 22.8 | (19.8, 25.7) | 25.0 | (22.4, 27.7) | 40.5 | (38.0, 43.0) | 52.5 | (50.1, 55.0) | |
| 1 (lowest) | 0.3 | (−3.4, 3.9) | 47.7 | (44.3, 51.1) | 26.3 | (23.4, 29.2) | 40.1 | (37.5, 42.8) | 67.1 | (64.6, 69.7) | 59.4 | (56.9, 61.9) | |
| Of color | 5 (highest) | . | . . | . | . . | . | . . | . | . . | . | . . | . | . . |
| 4 | 66.4 | (48.6, 84.1) | 59.7 | (45.3, 74.1) | 69.4 | (58.8, 80.0) | 73.4 | (64.4, 82.4) | 123.7 | (115.9, 131.6) | 93.1 | (86.5, 99.8) | |
| 3 | 113.9 | (97.7, 130.1) | 151.7 | (136.3, 167.2) | 106.5 | (94.7, 118.4) | 167.3 | (158.0, 176.5) | 132.6 | (125.3, 140.0) | 134.5 | (128.1, 141.0) | |
| 2 | 196.0 | (179.7, 212.3) | 178.1 | (163.3, 192.8) | 196.9 | (186.0, 207.8) | 172.8 | (163.3, 182.2) | 110.2 | (102.6, 117.8) | 136.9 | (130.2, 143.6) | |
| 1 (lowest) | 88.7 | (74.3, 103.1) | 143.0 | (129.1, 157.0) | 156.4 | (146.2, 166.6) | 172.8 | (163.8, 181.8) | 194.4 | (187.2, 201.7) | 132.9 | (126.8, 138.9) | |
| referent | PAF | PAF | PAF | PAF | PAF | PAF | |||||||
| total | total, Q5 | 12.6% | (12.1%, 13.0%) | 12.7% | (12.2%, 13.2%) | 8.6% | (8.1%, 9.0%) | 10.4% | (10.0%, 10.8%) | 11.8% | (11.4%, 12.2%) | 11.6% | (11.3, 12.0%) |
| white | white, Q5 | 10.4% | (9.9%, 10.9%) | 9.5% | (9.0%, 10.1%) | 5.3% | (4.8%, 5.8%) | 7.0% | (6.5%, 7.4%) | 9.1% | (8.7%, 9.5%) | 9.2% | (8.8, 9.6%) |
| of color | white, Q5 | 45.4% | (44.9%, 45.9%) | 45.9% | (45.4%, 46.3%) | 36.7% | (36.2%, 37.2%) | 36.3% | (35.8%, 36.8%) | 27.1% | (26.6%, 27.6%) | 19.5% | (19.0, 20.1%) |
| (b) Mortality preventable by 1960s standards of medical care | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County income |
Year | ||||||||||||
| Population | quintile | 1960 | 1970 | 1980 | 1990 | 2000 | 2006 | ||||||
| IRR | (95% CI) | IRR | (95% CI) | IRR | (95% CI) | IRR | (95% CI) | IRR | (95% CI) | IRR | (95% CI) | ||
| Total | 5 (highest) | 1.00 | . . | 1.00 | . . | 1.00 | . . | 1.00 | . . | 1.00 | . . | 1.00 | . . |
| 4 | 1.07 | (1.06, 1.08) | 1.10 | (1.09, 1.11) | 1.06 | (1.04, 1.07) | 1.04 | (1.03, 1.06) | 1.04 | (1.03, 1.05) | 1.06 | (1.04, 1.07) | |
| 3 | 1.10 | (1.08, 1.11) | 1.11 | (1.10, 1.13) | 1.04 | (1.02, 1.05) | 1.04 | (1.03, 1.06) | 1.07 | (1.06, 1.08) | 1.08 | (1.07, 1.10) | |
| 2 | 1.17 | (1.16, 1.19) | 1.16 | (1.14, 1.17) | 1.09 | (1.08, 1.11) | 1.05 | (1.03, 1.06) | 1.10 | (1.09, 1.12) | 1.12 | (1.10, 1.13) | |
| 1 (lowest) | 1.12 | (1.11, 1.13) | 1.25 | (1.23, 1.26) | 1.12 | (1.11, 1.14) | 1.11 | (1.09, 1.12) | 1.14 | (1.13, 1.16) | 1.21 | (1.19, 1.23) | |
| White | 5 (highest) | 1.00 | . . | 1.00 | . . | 1.00 | . . | 1.00 | . . | 1.00 | . . | 1.00 | . . |
| 4 | 1.07 | (1.05, 1.08) | 1.07 | (1.06, 1.09) | 1.03 | (1.02, 1.05) | 1.02 | (1.00, 1.03) | 1.02 | (1.01, 1.03) | 1.04 | (1.02, 1.05) | |
| 3 | 1.08 | (1.06, 1.09) | 1.09 | (1.08, 1.11) | 1.02 | (1.01, 1.04) | 1.00 | (0.99, 1.02) | 1.04 | (1.02, 1.05) | 1.04 | (1.03, 1.06) | |
| 2 | 1.13 | (1.12, 1.15) | 1.11 | (1.10, 1.13) | 1.05 | (1.04, 1.07) | 1.01 | (0.99, 1.02) | 1.09 | (1.07, 1.10) | 1.09 | (1.08, 1.11) | |
| 1 (lowest) | 1.05 | (1.03, 1.06) | 1.19 | (1.17, 1.20) | 1.07 | (1.05, 1.08) | 1.06 | (1.05, 1.08) | 1.11 | (1.09, 1.12) | 1.16 | (1.15, 1.18) | |
| Of color | 5 (highest) | 1.00 | . . | 1.00 | . . | 1.00 | . . | 1.00 | . . | 1.00 | . . | 1.00 | . . |
| 4 | 1.11 | (1.06, 1.15) | 1.26 | (1.20, 1.32) | 1.16 | (1.11, 1.21) | 1.18 | (1.14, 1.23) | 1.14 | (1.10, 1.19) | 1.15 | (1.11, 1.20) | |
| 3 | 1.16 | (1.12, 1.20) | 1.27 | (1.21, 1.33) | 1.24 | (1.18, 1.29) | 1.25 | (1.20, 1.30) | 1.19 | (1.15, 1.23) | 1.28 | (1.23, 1.32) | |
| 2 | 1.36 | (1.32, 1.42) | 1.40 | (1.34, 1.47) | 1.33 | (1.28, 1.39) | 1.34 | (1.29, 1.39) | 1.20 | (1.15, 1.24) | 1.28 | (1.23, 1.33) | |
| 1 (lowest) | 1.27 | (1.23, 1.32) | 1.57 | (1.50, 1.64) | 1.39 | (1.33, 1.44) | 1.37 | (1.32, 1.43) | 1.28 | (1.23, 1.32) | 1.33 | (1.29, 1.38) | |
| IRD | (95% CI) | IRD | (95% CI) | IRD | (95% CI) | IRD | (95% CI) | IRD | (95% CI) | IRD | (95% CI) | ||
| Total | 5 (highest) | 0 | . . | 0 | . . | 0 | . . | 0 | . . | 0 | . . | . | . . |
| 4 | 20.6 | (16.9, 24.4) | 20.6 | (17.9, 23.4) | 8.2 | (6.3, 10.1) | 5.2 | (3.7, 6.8) | 3.9 | (2.6, 5.1) | 3.9 | (2.9, 4.9) | |
| 3 | 29.1 | (25.4, 32.7) | 23.1 | (20.4, 25.9) | 5.2 | (3.3, 7.2) | 5.0 | (3.5, 6.6) | 6.4 | (5.2, 7.6) | 5.9 | (4.9, 6.9) | |
| 2 | 51.7 | (48.0, 55.4) | 31.8 | (29.0, 34.6) | 13.4 | (11.5, 15.4) | 5.6 | (4.1, 7.1) | 9.7 | (8.5, 10.9) | 8.2 | (7.2, 9.1) | |
| 1 (lowest) | 35.8 | (32.2, 39.4) | 50.8 | (48.1, 53.5) | 18.0 | (16.1, 19.8) | 12.5 | (11.0, 13.9) | 13.5 | (12.3, 14.7) | 14.7 | (13.7, 15.7) | |
| White | 5 (highest) | 0 | . . | 0 | . . | 0 | . . | 0 | . . | 0 | . . | . | . . |
| 4 | 19.6 | (15.8, 23.4) | 14.7 | (11.8, 17.5) | 4.8 | (2.9, 6.8) | 1.8 | (0.2, 3.4) | 1.8 | (0.5, 3.1) | 2.5 | (1.5, 3.6) | |
| 3 | 22.1 | (18.4, 25.9) | 19.0 | (16.2, 21.9) | 3.0 | (1.1, 5.0) | 0.4 | −(1.2, 1.9) | 3.4 | (2.2, 4.6) | 2.9 | (1.9, 3.9) | |
| 2 | 38.8 | (35.0, 42.6) | 23.0 | (20.2, 25.9) | 7.3 | (5.3, 9.3) | 0.9 | −(0.6, 2.4) | 8.1 | (6.8, 9.3) | 6.3 | (5.3, 7.3) | |
| 1 (lowest) | 13.3 | (9.6, 17.0) | 37.9 | (35.1, 40.7) | 9.7 | (7.8, 11.7) | 7.2 | (5.7, 8.8) | 9.8 | (8.5, 11.0) | 11.3 | (10.2, 12.3) | |
| Of color | 5 (highest) | 0 | . . | 0 | . . | 0 | . . | 0 | . . | 0 | . . | . | . . |
| 4 | 42.7 | (24.5, 61.0) | 57.7 | (46.2, 69.3) | 25.5 | (18.0, 33.1) | 24.0 | (18.2, 29.7) | 15.9 | (11.5, 20.3) | 12.3 | (9.0, 15.5) | |
| 3 | 64.4 | (48.0, 80.8) | 59.5 | (47.6, 71.4) | 38.3 | (30.0, 46.6) | 32.3 | (26.7, 38.0) | 20.8 | (16.6, 25.0) | 22.4 | (19.2, 25.6) | |
| 2 | 147.4 | (131.0, 163.8) | 89.3 | (77.9, 100.7) | 53.7 | (46.2, 61.1) | 44.7 | (38.9, 50.6) | 21.8 | (17.5, 26.2) | 22.6 | (19.3, 25.9) | |
| 1 (lowest) | 110.9 | (96.2, 125.6) | 127.5 | (116.6, 138.5) | 62.7 | (55.6, 69.9) | 49.0 | (43.4, 54.5) | 30.5 | (26.5, 34.6) | 26.9 | (23.9, 29.9) | |
| referent | PAF | PAF | PAF | PAF | PAF | PAF | |||||||
| total | total, Q5 | 10.3% | (9.6%, 10.9%) | 13.4% | (12.7%, 14.2%) | 7.5% | (6.7%, 8.3%) | 6.1% | (5.3%, 6.9%) | 7.5% | (6.7%, 8.3%) | 9.5% | (8.7%, 10.3%) |
| white | white, Q5 | 7.2% | (6.5%, 7.9%) | 10.3% | (9.5%, 11.1%) | 4.6% | (3.7%, 5.5%) | 3.0% | (2.2%, 3.9%) | 5.5% | (4.6%, 6.3%) | 7.1% | (6.2%, 8.0%) |
| of color | white, Q5 | 54.1% | (53.6%, 54.6%) | 45.7% | (45.0%, 46.4%) | 38.7% | (37.9%, 39.6%) | 36.3% | (35.4%, 37.2%) | 33.5% | (32.6%, 34.4%) | 34.5% | (33.6%, 35.5%) |