Table 3.

Example Reclassification Table Based on Predicted Outcome Probabilities

Grouped mortality probabilities estimated by the first prognostic test	Grouped mortality probabilities estimated by the first prognostic test + a new prognostic test
	0 to 0.10	> 0.10	Total
0 to 0.10
Patients in prognostic group	900	100 (10%)	1000
Mortality predictions using 1st test	4.0%	8.0%	4.40%
Mortality prediction using both tests	3.8%	11.0%	-
Observed mortality	3.9%	12.0%	4.7%
> 0.10
Patients in prognostic group	100 (25%)	300	400
Mortality predictions using 1st test	15.0%	17.0%	16.5%
Mortality prediction using both tests	9.0%	19.0%	-
Observed mortality	10.0%	19.0%	16.8%
Total
Patients in prognostic group	1000	400	1400
Mortality prediction using both tests	4.3%	17.0%	-
Observed mortality	4.5%	17.2%	8.2%