Table 5.
Multinomial logistic regression output for predicting the competing risks of taking the first trip to one of three competing locations in month t+1
| Within Chitwan |
To Other Districts |
To Other Countries |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independent Variables in Month t | B | SE | B | SE | B | SE |
| Proximate Causes | ||||||
| Standardized index of violence | −0.552** | (0.175) | −1.567** | (0.407) | −3.689* | (1.744) |
| Squared of standardized index of violence | 0.140* | (0.063) | 0.286* | (0.133) | 0.974* | (0.442) |
| Root Causes | ||||||
| Physical capital | ||||||
| Owns farmland | −0.531** | (0.123) | −0.438** | (0.141) | 0.582* | (0.291) |
| Standardized index of household amenities | −0.139* | (0.064) | −0.049 | (0.067) | −0.188 | (0.117) |
| Standardized index of goods owned | −0.010 | (0.059) | 0.061 | (0.059) | 0.150 | (0.106) |
| Standardized index of livestock owned | −0.077 | (0.052) | 0.039 | (0.053) | −0.066 | (0.091) |
| Human capital | ||||||
| Education | 0.038** | (0.013) | 0.069** | (0.016) | 0.056* | (0.025) |
| Salary job | 0.666** | (0.145) | 0.661** | (0.160) | 0.090 | (0.275) |
| Age | −0.200** | (0.020) | −0.185** | (0.023) | −0.166** | (0.044) |
| Age squared | 0.002** | (0.000) | 0.002** | (0.000) | 0.001* | (0.001) |
| Intervening Factors | ||||||
| Social capital | ||||||
| House member migrated within Chitwan | 0.327† | (0.176) | 0.121 | (0.195) | 0.430 | (0.373) |
| House member migrated to other districts | 0.133 | (0.148) | 0.855** | (0.147) | 0.486* | (0.248) |
| House member an international migrant | −0.140 | (0.144) | 0.222 | (0.165) | 1.597** | (0.225) |
| Months | ||||||
| January | 0.240 | (0.248) | −0.542* | (0.272) | −0.915 | (0.593) |
| February | 1.069** | (0.207) | 0.447* | (0.197) | 0.945** | (0.360) |
| March | 0.800** | (0.223) | −0.012 | (0.207) | 0.897* | (0.366) |
| April | 0.809** | (0.219) | 0.146 | (0.198) | 0.589 | (0.389) |
| May | 0.774** | (0.222) | 0.126 | (0.202) | 0.357 | (0.409) |
| June | 0.523* | (0.221) | 0.123 | (0.210) | 0.240 | (0.409) |
| July | 0.862** | (0.219) | −0.047 | (0.223) | 0.469 | (0.395) |
| August | 0.751** | (0.217) | −0.006 | (0.213) | 0.084 | (0.445) |
| September | −0.146 | (0.270) | −0.103 | (0.235) | −0.167 | (0.461) |
| October | 0.303 | (0.244) | −0.026 | (0.222) | 0.539 | (0.408) |
| November | 0.521* | (0.234) | −0.082 | (0.212) | 0.814* | (0.391) |
| December | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Demographic Variables | ||||||
| Female | −0.271* | (0.138) | −0.408** | (0.153) | −2.949** | (0.513) |
| Married | 0.516** | (0.158) | 0.067 | (0.196) | 0.597* | (0.258) |
| Female × married | 0.269† | (0.162) | 0.597** | (0.187) | 1.028† | (0.557) |
| Number of household members | −0.017 | (0.020) | −0.045* | (0.020) | −0.130** | (0.049) |
| Ethnicity | ||||||
| Hindu upper caste | 0.167 | (0.139) | 0.326† | (0.175) | 0.801** | (0.274) |
| Hindu lower caste | 0.043 | (0.188) | 0.361 | (0.225) | 0.864** | (0.304) |
| Hill Tibeto-Burmese | 0.498** | (0.150) | 0.660** | (0.199) | 0.710* | (0.298) |
| Newar and other | −0.004 | (0.235) | 0.345 | (0.246) | −0.089 | (0.465) |
| Terai Tibeto-Burmese | — | — | — | — | — | – |
| Constant | −2.197** | (0.423) | −3.010** | (0.487) | −5.980** | (1.280) |
| Likelihood Ratio Chi-Square (df = 96) | 1,911.34** | |||||
| No. of person-months | 232,669 | |||||
†
p < .10;
*
p < .05;
**
p < .01