Figure 3.

Relationship between the average age and incidence of Kawasaki disease hospitalizations in the United States. (a) The number of weekly KD hospitalizations (blue) among children less than 10 years of age in 10 US states from 1989 to 2003, and the average age of KD patients (red). We smoothed the data using a five week moving average. (b) Mean number and average age of KD cases by week of the year. (c) Correlation coefficients between the number of hospitalizations at time t and the average age of patients at time t + l for the longitudinal analysis and the aggregate analysis. The dotted lines represent the range within which 95% of the maximum and minimum correlations fell when we randomly permuted the average age time series. (d) Age distribution of KD hospitalizations among children less than 10 years of age in 10 US states compared with model-predicted age distributions under different population mixing assumptions. Black bars, KD hospitalizations; blue bars, homogeneous mixing; yellow bars, assortative mixing; pink bars, self-reported mixing; green bars, RAS mixing.