Table 3. Parameters required for scenario specific simulations.
Baseline | 1957 | 1968 | 1918 1st wave | 1918 2nd wave | 1918 3rd wave | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Overall hospitalization rate per 100,000 population | 138* | 188† | 144† | – | – | – |
Overall clinical attack rate, % | 25† | 31† | 21‡ | 5§ | 9%§ | 4§ |
Overall serologic attack rate, % | 50‡ | 67‡ | 65§ | 79§ | 61§ | 69§ |
% immune at start of wave | 0¶ | 0¶ | 15‡ | 0¶ | 0¶ | 0¶ |
R0 | 1.39‡ | 1.65‡ | 2.2‡ | 2.00† | 1.55‡ | 1.70‡ |
Case-fatality rate, % | – | – | – | 0.70† | 3.25† | 2.70† |
*Derived from model simulations. †Reported values. ‡Calculated directly from data. §Calculated by fitting the model to data. ¶Assumed values.