Table 4. Unmitigated case results for Ro and average attack rates (%) for increasing ID and base case, variation 1, variation 2, and variations 1 and 2 combined*.
Type | ID factor | Ro | Attack rates | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Overall | SD | Children | SD | Teenagers | SD | Adults | SD | Older adults | SD | |||
Base case | 1.0 | 1.6 | 51 | 1.7 | 79 | 2.3 | 72 | 2.7 | 45 | 1.8 | 23 | 2.0 |
1.25 | 1.8 | 66 | 1.2 | 90 | 1.1 | 85 | 1.7 | 61 | 1.5 | 36 | 2.1 | |
1.5 | 2.0 | 75 | 0.7 | 95 | 0.6 | 92 | 1.1 | 71 | 0.9 | 47 | 1.9 | |
2.0 | 2.4 | 86 | 0.6 | 99 | 0.3 | 97 | 0.5 | 84 | 0.7 | 64 | 2.0 | |
Variation 1 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 52 | 2.2 | 65 | 2.8 | 68 | 3.2 | 50 | 2.2 | 30 | 2.5 |
1.25 | 1.7 | 70 | 1.3 | 82 | 1.4 | 84 | 1.8 | 68 | 1.5 | 47 | 2.3 | |
1.5 | 1.9 | 80 | 0.8 | 90 | 1.0 | 91 | 0.9 | 79 | 0.9 | 60 | 2.0 | |
2.0 | 2.4 | 90 | 0.5 | 96 | 0.6 | 97 | 0.7 | 90 | 0.6 | 76 | 1.6 | |
Variation 2 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 52 | 1.9 | 72 | 2.6 | 64 | 2.9 | 50 | 2.1 | 19 | 1.7 |
1.25 | 1.8 | 68 | 1.0 | 87 | 1.3 | 81 | 1.6 | 68 | 1.3 | 31 | 2.1 | |
1.5 | 1.9 | 78 | 0.8 | 93 | 0.9 | 89 | 1.2 | 79 | 1.0 | 41 | 2.2 | |
2.0 | 2.3 | 88 | 0.5 | 98 | 0.4 | 96 | 0.7 | 90 | 0.7 | 57 | 1.9 | |
Variations 1 and 2 combined | 1.0 | 1.5 | 52 | 2.0 | 55 | 2.3 | 57 | 2.7 | 56 | 2.3 | 23 | 1.7 |
1.25 | 1.8 | 70 | 1.1 | 74 | 1.8 | 76 | 1.9 | 75 | 1.2 | 37 | 2.0 | |
1.5 | 2.0 | 80 | 0.8 | 84 | 1.2 | 85 | 1.2 | 85 | 0.8 | 48 | 2.0 | |
2.0 | 2.4 | 90 | 0.4 | 93 | 0.6 | 94 | 0.9 | 94 | 0.5 | 65 | 1.8 |
*Variation 1 is removal of relative infectivity and susceptibility; variation 2 is an increase in work group frequency of contact to give all children, teenagers, and adults the same overall contact frequencies. Average attack rates accumulate over only those simulations that resulted in epidemics (>100 infected). RO, reproductive number; ID, disease infectivity; SD, standard deviation.